Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inventories

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2022

In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2022 Is This the Bottom for the EZ Trade Deficit? We Think So

The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.

The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.

Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2022 Taking Stock of the Energy Situation in Europe, Again

Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.

The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.

A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 July 2022 Is Germany Already in Recession? It's a Tight Call, but We Think So

Germany is now likely in recession, but net trade in services is a wild card for the Q2 GDP print.

By contrast, we are revising up our Spain Q2 GDP forecast, again; we now look for a 1.0% q/q rise.

Inflation was weighing on retail sales mid-way through Q2, but spending probably still rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2022 Another Consensus-Beating CPI Print, But no 50bp Hike this Month

Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.

Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.

EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2022 Brace for Further Russian Gas Flow Cuts and Higher Inflation

Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.

This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...

...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 June 2022 Manufacturing will Weigh on Q2 GDP Growth in Germany

Industrial production in Germany rebounded in April, but a fall in Q2 as a whole is virtually guaranteed.

Rebounds in services and net trade should drive a Q2 increase in German GDP, by around 0.5%.

We think German GDP will rise by 1.4% and 1.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, below the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 June 2022 We Now Think the ECB's Deposit Rate will be at Zero in July

The EU finally agrees on a Russian oil embargo, but pipeline oil to Eastern Europe will keep flowing.

We now see a real risk of panic at the ECB; the deposit rate will be at zero by July.

Revised data show that Italy’s economy actually grew in Q1 while Swiss GDP beat expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 May 2022 The Near-Term Uncertainty over German GDP Growth is Rising

Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.

We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.

Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence