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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inventories

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q4 2022

In one line: Still in line with the ECB’s conviction of economic resilience.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q4-22 GDP & Consumers' Spending, France

In one line: Domestic demand has softened, but net exports are rebounding. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q3 2022

In one line: Revised up but GDP growth still slowed sharply in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2022

In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence