Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
inventories
In one line: Still in line with the ECB’s conviction of economic resilience.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Back to square one; growth in 2023 will be close to zero.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Domestic demand has softened, but net exports are rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Revised up but GDP growth still slowed sharply in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but we remain confident that growth is slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
- Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
- Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
- The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
- ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
- The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
- EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
- Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
