Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Solid, but we remain confident that growth is slowing.
In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good.
Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.
Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.
Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Robust, but it was all net exports and inventories.
The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.
The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.
Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
Germany is now likely in recession, but net trade in services is a wild card for the Q2 GDP print.
By contrast, we are revising up our Spain Q2 GDP forecast, again; we now look for a 1.0% q/q rise.
Inflation was weighing on retail sales mid-way through Q2, but spending probably still rose.
Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.
Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.
EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.
Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.
This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...
...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.
Industrial production in Germany rebounded in April, but a fall in Q2 as a whole is virtually guaranteed.
Rebounds in services and net trade should drive a Q2 increase in German GDP, by around 0.5%.
We think German GDP will rise by 1.4% and 1.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, below the consensus.
The EU finally agrees on a Russian oil embargo, but pipeline oil to Eastern Europe will keep flowing.
We now see a real risk of panic at the ECB; the deposit rate will be at zero by July.
Revised data show that Italy’s economy actually grew in Q1 while Swiss GDP beat expectations.
Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.
We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.
Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence