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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

intermediate goods

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial production, EZ, June 2022

In one line: Add low water levels in European rivers to the long list of factors that will weigh on industrial output in H2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor If polls are right, Italy will soon get a right-wing government

If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.

This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.

Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2022 EZ Core Inflation is Peaking, but it will Remain High Throughout 2022

Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.

French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.

EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, May 2022

In one line: Net exports likely were a drag on growth in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 July 2022 Is Germany Already in Recession? It's a Tight Call, but We Think So

Germany is now likely in recession, but net trade in services is a wild card for the Q2 GDP print.

By contrast, we are revising up our Spain Q2 GDP forecast, again; we now look for a 1.0% q/q rise.

Inflation was weighing on retail sales mid-way through Q2, but spending probably still rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2022 How Can the EZ Avoid a Recession in the Next Few Quarters?

Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.

A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...

...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2022 Another Consensus-Beating CPI Print, But no 50bp Hike this Month

Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.

Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.

EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2022 No Relief for the ECB the EZ Inflation Data

The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July. 

A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again. 

Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, EZ, April

In one line: Services will offset weakness in industry in Q2; EZ trade deficit widens to a new record.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, April 2022

In one line: Italian industry will support GDP growth in Q2, unlike its counterpart in Germany.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, April 2022

In one line: A still-wide deficit in goods somewhat offset by a surplus in services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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