Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

intermediate goods

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, November 2021

In one line: A surplus no more, but net trade still probably provided a little boost to GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Jan 2022 Draghi's Departure Wouldn't Change Italy's Outlook, Much

  • Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
  • Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
  • An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: Distorted by Irish data; industry was probably a small drag on GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Jan 2022 Solid Q4 Retail Sales Growth Didn't Offset Weakness in Services

  • Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
  • Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
  • EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: This is the peak, but the fall will be slow and uneven.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers Spending & Industrial Production, France, November 2021

In one line: Goods spending rebounds but industrial production still in the doldrums.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Jan 2022 German Industrial Production Came Back Strongly in Q4

  • German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
  • ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

5 Jan 2022 Early Evidence of EZ Resilience in the Face of Omicron, in Q4

  • Advance November retail sales data point to relative strength in EZ consumption midway through Q4.
  • Germany's labour market recovery continued in Q4, but surveys warn of a setback in Q1.
  • Headline inflation in France remained high in December, but energy inflation is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Dec 2021 Spain Still the Laggard, Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • The upward revision to Q3 GDP in Spain still leaves it further below the Q4 2019 level than elsewhere...
  • ...The recovery has now slowed sharply; we look for just 1.0% growth in Q4; risks are to the downside.
  • Data over the holidays are likely to show soft retail sales and yet more softening in business surveys.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Dec 2021 End in Sight for Surge in Energy Inflation, but Uncertainty Persists

  • Gas prices have further to rise in the short term boosting energy inflation into Q1.
  • But easing demand and base effects will then bring gas inflation hurtling down.
  • Political tensions with Russia, and Germany's plans to wind down nuclear energy, present upside risks.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

22 Dec 2021 The Euro Glut is Swelling, this time due to EZ Demand for Equities

  • The ECB’s data continue to paint a less dramatic picture of trade in goods than Eurostat's numbers.
  • Net services exports likely will jump in Q4, but this will be offset in part by a fall in IP capex.
  • The euro glut has expanded during the pandemic, due mainly to a rise in EZ foreign equity holdings.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Dec 2021 Supply Chain Issues will Continue to Weigh on EZ Output in 2022

  • Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
  • Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
  • The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

20 Dec 2021 EZ Inflation Will be Close to 3% in 2022, and the Core will Hit 2%

  • We are raising our headline inflation forecasts for next year, but we're still well behind the ECB.
  • Core inflation will hover around 2% for much of next year, causing a headache for the central bank.
  • More poor survey data reassert our view that Q4 and Q1 won’t be pretty for the EZ’s largest economy.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, EZ, November

In one line: One more rise in December, and then the fever will break, for a short while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

13 Dec 2021 German Inflation is Running Hot; Industry in The Periphery Stutters

  • German core inflation will fall sharply in January, but then rebound; the HICP rate will stay sticky in 2022.
  • Spanish and Italian industrial production both fell at the start of Q4, in contrast to increases in the core...
  • ...We think industry will be a drag on GDP growth in Q4, just when risks to services activity are rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence