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The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
In one line: Add low water levels in European rivers to the long list of factors that will weigh on industrial output in H2.
In one line: Core inflation pressures are intensifying
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.
This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.
Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.
French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.
EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.
In one line: Q2 was still good but brace for a tough H2.
In one line: Net exports likely were a drag on growth in Q2.
Germany is now likely in recession, but net trade in services is a wild card for the Q2 GDP print.
By contrast, we are revising up our Spain Q2 GDP forecast, again; we now look for a 1.0% q/q rise.
Inflation was weighing on retail sales mid-way through Q2, but spending probably still rose.
Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.
A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...
...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.
Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.
Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.
EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.
The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
In one line: No rebound in sight.
The EZ core inflation rate will remain near 4% over the summer; it could even surpass 4% in July.
A sustained cut in Russian gas flows to Europe would send energy prices and inflation soaring, again.
Is the ECB edging towards an explicit cap on bond spreads? More QE will be needed if it is.
In one line: Services will offset weakness in industry in Q2; EZ trade deficit widens to a new record.
In one line: Italian industry will support GDP growth in Q2, unlike its counterpart in Germany.
In one line: A still-wide deficit in goods somewhat offset by a surplus in services.
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