Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

interest rates

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2023

In one line: CS problem is solved as far as the SNB is concerned; fight against inflation continues.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December

In one line: ECB hawks to markets; “we’re the captain now”.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q4 2022

In one line: SNB pivots but signals more is to come; we have added another hike into the cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Rising ECB Rates Look Durable, but We See Two 25bp Cuts in 2024

  • Economists’ forecasts for ECB policy rates beyond Q1 next year lack imagination, for good reason.
  • A solid labour market and fiscal stimulus support the ECB’s sustained departure from the zero bound.
  • Our new forecasts see a medium-term ECB policy rate at 1.8-to 2.0%, pointing to cuts in H1-2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October

In one line: An early hint of slower rate rises; the ECB is incentivising banks to repay TLTRO III funds. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence