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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

interest rate

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2023

In one line: CS problem is solved as far as the SNB is concerned; fight against inflation continues.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, November 2022

In one line: The jobless rate will rise again as the EZ economy enters recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December

In one line: ECB hawks to markets; “we’re the captain now”.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, October 2022

In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's A Close Call, But We Still Look for an ECB Pivot This Month

The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.

But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...

...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October

In one line: An early hint of slower rate rises; the ECB is incentivising banks to repay TLTRO III funds. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It Looks Like a Peak in Inflation, but a 75bp Hike Next Week is a Lock

  • Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
  • The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
  • Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence