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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

insee

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Surge in Gas Prices Piles More Pressure on the ECB

Soft money data rounded up a week of gloomy leading indicators for EZ GDP last week.
ISTAT data lend support to our view that Italy, along with Germany, is leading the EZ downturn in H2.
The sour data spooked some ECB members, but the ECB is not about to turn dovish.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, July 2022

In one line: Grim, but one-off factors should support income and spending in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2022 EZ Monitor Falling EZ Inflation Expectations will be a Relief for the ECB

Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.

After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.

The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Climate, France, July 2022

In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2022 EZ Core Inflation is Peaking, but it will Remain High Throughout 2022

Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.

French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.

EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2022 Sinking EZ Consumer Confidence Looks Grim, but this isn't the GFC

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.

Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...

...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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