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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inflation

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: All set for a big drop in Q1, but the core will rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, December 2021

In one line: Core inflation was still rising by the end of 2021, but it will fall in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Jan 2022 A Regime Shift is Underway in the Euro Area's Labour Market

  • EZ unemployment fell further in November, due to an improvement in all major economies.
  • Unemployment in the euro area will fall below 7% soon, even with Omicron now a near-term threat.
  • Our labour market forecasts imply accelerating wage growth in 2022; the ECB will take note.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Jan 2022 Solid Q4 Retail Sales Growth Didn't Offset Weakness in Services

  • Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
  • Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
  • EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: This is the peak, but the fall will be slow and uneven.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Jan 2022 German Industrial Production Came Back Strongly in Q4

  • German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
  • ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2021

In one line: Still hot, but also old news; both the headline and core will fall in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Jan 2022 The Restrictions-Exposed Services Sector is now Driving a Slowdown

  • The December PMIs indicate that EZ manufacturing production is now outpacing services output.
  • German GDP growth underperformed in Q4, according to the PMIs; Spain did relatively well.
  • French consumer sentiment remained resilient in Q4, but we look for a setback in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Jan 2022 Early Evidence of EZ Resilience in the Face of Omicron, in Q4

  • Advance November retail sales data point to relative strength in EZ consumption midway through Q4.
  • Germany's labour market recovery continued in Q4, but surveys warn of a setback in Q1.
  • Headline inflation in France remained high in December, but energy inflation is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, December 2021

In one line: Energy inflation is now likely falling, but the core remains firm. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Jan 2022 Omicron is Milder than Delta, but it will Still Hold Back the EZ in Q1

  • Omicron is less of a burden on hospitals than Delta, but surging cases will still lead to restrictions in Q1.
  • Warm weather and energy imports are driving a fall in natural gas prices; good news for consumers.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth points to a further fall in the EZ composite PMI in Q1, to about 52. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

24 Dec 2021 Spain Still the Laggard, Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • The upward revision to Q3 GDP in Spain still leaves it further below the Q4 2019 level than elsewhere...
  • ...The recovery has now slowed sharply; we look for just 1.0% growth in Q4; risks are to the downside.
  • Data over the holidays are likely to show soft retail sales and yet more softening in business surveys.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Dec 2021 End in Sight for Surge in Energy Inflation, but Uncertainty Persists

  • Gas prices have further to rise in the short term boosting energy inflation into Q1.
  • But easing demand and base effects will then bring gas inflation hurtling down.
  • Political tensions with Russia, and Germany's plans to wind down nuclear energy, present upside risks.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Dec 2021 Supply Chain Issues will Continue to Weigh on EZ Output in 2022

  • Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
  • Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
  • The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

20 Dec 2021 EZ Inflation Will be Close to 3% in 2022, and the Core will Hit 2%

  • We are raising our headline inflation forecasts for next year, but we're still well behind the ECB.
  • Core inflation will hover around 2% for much of next year, causing a headache for the central bank.
  • More poor survey data reassert our view that Q4 and Q1 won’t be pretty for the EZ’s largest economy.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, EZ, November

In one line: One more rise in December, and then the fever will break, for a short while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Dec 2021 EZ Monetary Stimulus is Set to Slow Next Year, Virus Permitting

The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.

ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.

The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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