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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inflation

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, December 2022

In one line: Headline inflation likely has peaked, but the core isn’t rolling over, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, December 2022

In one line: Core inflation is peaking, but it will take a while to come down. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance CPI, Germany, December 2022

In one line: A fiscal-stimulus aided fall in the headline; the core is still rising.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation will Provide Cover for the ECB to Lift Rates to 3.5%

  • Core inflation data will allow the ECB to raise rates to 3.5% by June, but the tune will change in H2-23.
  • PMI data confirm the greenshoots seen in November, but still point to GDP falling sharply in Q4.
  • EZ energy imports plunged in October, but we can’t assume this is the start of a more sustained fall.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed CPI, Germany, November 2022

In one line: Energy inflation is easing, but the core is holding firm.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's A Close Call, But We Still Look for an ECB Pivot This Month

The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.

But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...

...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct

In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, November 2022

In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor We See no Green Shoots in the Eurozone Money Supply Data

The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.

Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.

The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence