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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
In one line: Core inflation pressures are intensifying
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
In one line: Inflation is no longer acceleration, but it will remain elevated for a while.
The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.
Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.
Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.
Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...
...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.
In one line: Miserable, mainly due to soaring prices.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Revisions will change the story for EZ GDP soon; Core inflation will stay at 4% through Q3.
In one line: Core inflation is still rising, quickly.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
In one line: National core inflation fell, but the HICP core likely rose
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
In one line: Grim, but one-off factors should support income and spending in Q3.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
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