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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

imports

11 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe is Still Importing Russian Energy, but the Share is Falling

  • EZ imports of Russian oil and gas have dropped, but they remain well above zero...
  • ...The EU has made up more of the shortfall left by Russian energy in oil than in gas.
  • Filling gas storages next year will come at a higher price, especially if activity in Asia rebounds.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's €200B Energy Support is a Game-Changer for 2023

  • Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
  • The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
  • German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Net Trade is A Wildcard for Our EZ Recession Call

  • Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
  • We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
  • Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, July

In one line: Imports will rollover as the economy heads for recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe Faces Difficult Trade-Offs on Energy as Winter Approaches

  • The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
  • Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
  • Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q2 2022

In one line: The SNB will continue its hiking cycle, despite slowing GDP growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, July 2022

In one line: Hit by a plunge in exports, but still well off the lows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy won't be Unscathed by the EZ Recession

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.5% in Q2, the same as in Q1, and more or less in line with the EZ aggregate.
  • The German recession will weigh on Swiss industry in H2, and consumers’ income is being squeezed.
  • We look for GDP growth broadly to stagnate in H2, but the SNB is still likely to hike rates further

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor What Does Record-High Inflation Mean for the EZ Economic Data

The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.

Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.

Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, June 2022

In one line: A solid finish to Q2 in manufacturing; net exports in services are soaring.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, June 2022

In one line: Lifted by improving net trade with China, the UK and Russia.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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