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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the surplus in services is soaring.
Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.
But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.
German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
In one line: Stung by a collapse in exports to Russia; imports are still rising sharply.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.
They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.
The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.
In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust.
The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.
A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.
German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.
Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.
Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.
In one line: Solid; net trade probably boosted Q1 GDP growth.
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