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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

household consumption

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 May 2022 We Now Think the ECB will Lift its Deposit Rate in July, by 25bp

Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.

Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.

Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, April & GDP, Spain, Q1 2022

In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1

In one line: Dragged down by weak services consumption. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, February 2022

In one line: Pedestrian; sales likely fell by around 0.7% in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' spending & Inflation, France, Feb/Mar 2022

In one line: Spending, ex-services, fell in Q1; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Mar 2022 What Does the War Mean for EZ Trade With Russia?

  • Russia accounts for around 3% of total EZ exports, and 6% of imports, the latter due mainly to energy.
  • EZ manufacturing exports to Russia are likely now falling; we look for a 40% slide through Q2.
  • European imports of energy from Russia will increase further in Q2, sanctions permitting.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine will Knock Off 0.6pp from EZ Growth in 2022

  • We are revising down our euro area GDP forecast for this year, by 0.6pp to 3.2%.
  • In a mild scenario, the war between Ukraine and Russia shaves 0.3pp off our 2022 forecast...
  • ...But in a worst-case scenario, where the war lasts past this year, GDP growth would be 1.5pp lower.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail sales, Eurozone, January

In one line: The readings in February and March will be much better. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France

In one line: Spending, ex-services, isn’t going anywhere, but inflation definitely is.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, March

In one line: Soft; inflation is sapping incomes and purchasing intentions. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Feb 2022 More Evidence that the ECB is About to Make a Hawkish Shift

  • Comments from Mr. Lane and Ms. Schnabel add to evidence of a hawkish shift in ECB policy.
  • French core inflation fell in January, but it will re- bound quickly, to 2.0%, where it will stay through Q3.
  • EZ construction fell in Q4, again, and consumer sentiment remained soft midway through Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence