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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Core inflation pressures are intensifying
We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
In one line: Inflation is no longer acceleration, but it will remain elevated for a while.
We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.
Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...
...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.
In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Core inflation is still rising, quickly.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
In one line: National core inflation fell, but the HICP core likely rose
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.
In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.
All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.
Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.
A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.
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