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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

hicp rate

12 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB will Flexibly Reinvest PEPP Redemptions through H2

We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...

...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.

We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, July 2022

In one line: Inflation is no longer acceleration, but it will remain elevated for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, June

In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, July 2022

In one line: National core inflation fell, but the HICP core likely rose

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 July 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Economy is in a Tightening Stagflationary Vice

The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.

Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.

The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB goes big on rates, and Italy heads for elections

The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.

The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.

Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2022

In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2022

In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2022 When will Swiss Inflation Start to Fall? August is a Good Bet

All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.

Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.

A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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