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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct

In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, November 2022

In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Likely Reached 10% in September, with 5% on the Core

  • German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
  • Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
  • Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, September

In one line: German inflation jumped above 10% in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Energy inflation is falling, but food and core inflation are still climbing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, August 2022

In one line: The headline is now falling, but the core will soon rise above 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Taking no Prisoners; We see Another 75bp in October

  • The ECB goes big with a 75bp rate hike, and we are inclined to look for another 75bp in October.
  • We think the ECB wants to get its main policy rates to 2-to-2.5%, between now and Q1 next year.
  • The ECB now sees the EZ economy stalling in H2-22, but rates will continue to increase.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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