Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
In one line: A record high, but it still doesn’t justify rate expectations.
In one line: Spending starts Q4 on a weak foot; energy inflation drives the headline higher in November.
In one line: Expect another hot reading in December.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
In one line: Energy inflation is still rocketing; the core is held up by robust services inflation.
- The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
- In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
- The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.
In one line: Still going up, but the upturn in the core is levelling off.
In one line: Boosted by higher energy inflation; the core likely rose fractionally.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
- A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
- Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.
- The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
- If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
- We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.
- Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
- Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
- …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.
- EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
- The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
- Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.
- German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
- Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
- Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?
- Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
- ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
- ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.
- EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
- Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
- The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
- ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
- We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.
- There are many statistical hurdles to overcome to include housing costs into the EZ HICP...
- ...A rough & ready estimate suggests inflation would have been 0.3pp higher, on average, since 2011.
- Even if house price growth continues to accelerate, we doubt it will lead to tighter monetary policy.
- The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
- Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
- We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.