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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, April 2022

 In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April 2022

 In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Still soaring, but a cut in fuel duties should be a drag in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' spending & Inflation, France, Feb/Mar 2022

In one line: Spending, ex-services, fell in Q1; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Mar 2022 The ECB to Tighten Hard in 22, Before Applying the Brakes in 23

  • We grasp the nettle on our faulty energy inflation forecasts, and try a new approach.
  • Our new model sees near-term upside risks for energy inflation, but downside risks next year.
  • We now think the ECB will take the deposit rate to zero this year, before pausing in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, February

In one line: Core inflation rebounded, and likely will climb further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Mar 2022 The Stagflationary Shock is a Reality; What Happens Next?

  • The EZ is now in stagflation; growth forecasts will come down, even as inflation projections rise.
  • EZ energy inflation could rise above 40% in the next few months, lifting the headline HICP rate to 7%.
  • Economic activity in Germany picked up in January, but growth through Q1 as a whole will be soft.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Mar 2022 EZ Inflation Data will Make the ECB Uncomfortable

  • EZ inflation jumped by 0.7pp to 5.8% in February, driven by higher energy inflation, again.
  • We think the energy rate will start to fall soon, but some of this will be offset by a higher core.
  • The ECB will pause in light of the war in Ukraine, but can't avoid unwinding QE this year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Mar 2022 RRF Funds are Flowing but Only Slowly, EZ Inflation Up in February

  • EU Recovery funds are flowing to EZ economies but nowhere near as fast as the EC had forecast.
  • We think the bulk of funds won’t be spent, and probably not even received, until after this year.
  • We are raising our forecast for EZ inflation for Febru- ary out today; we look for a 0.5pp increase to 5.6%.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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