Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Still advancing, but the core seems to be cooling.
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
- German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
- Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
- Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?
- In one line: Both energy and core inflation are still rising.
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.
- Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
- ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
- ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
- Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
- Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.
- In one line: Still going up, but it probably won’t go much higher.
- EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
- Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
- The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.
- In one line: Energy inflation is still rising; the HICP core rate likely jumped.
- In one line: Spending boosted by food and energy; energy and services inflation rose further in September.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
- The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
- ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
- The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
- Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.
- Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
- Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
- The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.