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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.
We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.
Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.
The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.
But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...
...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.
In one line: Here comes the pivot.
In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October.
Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...
...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.
Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.
In one line: Support for an ECB pivot to 50bp in December.
In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.
The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.
Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.
The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.
In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike.
In one line: The core will maintain pressure on the headline.
In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.
In one line: Boo!
In one line: A kick in the gut for ECB doves?
In one line: Ouch.
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