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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

headline inflation

2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's A Close Call, But We Still Look for an ECB Pivot This Month

The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.

But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...

...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct

In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, November 2022

In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor We See no Green Shoots in the Eurozone Money Supply Data

The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.

Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.

The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Deficit will Continue to Narrow, For Now

  • Services exports have held back the EZ services balance since June, despite the summer tourist season.
  • Risk aversion means EZ investors again dumped foreign assets in September; this will continue.
  • The rise in prices of durable goods items, which is partly driving core inflation higher, is broad-based.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation Likely is now Falling, but the Downshift will be Slow

  • EZ core goods inflation will rise a bit further in the near term, but services inflation should now ease.
  • The reversal in margin pressure points to a sustained fall in EZ core inflation, but it will take a long time.
  • We think core inflation will stay above 3% through the first half of 2023, maintaining pressure on the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's Yield Curve is Inverted; How Will it Un-Invert?

  • Germany’s yield curve is now inverted, driven mainly by a repricing in short-term interest rates.
  • We think the curve will stay inverted until Q1-23, after which it will re-steepen via higher 10-year yields.
  • Core inflation in Germany likely has peaked, but it will stay at 4-to-5% through H1-23, at least.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Swiss Inflation is Falling, Fast; the EZ Labour Market is Still Resilient

  • Swiss inflation fell again in October, and all signs point to it sliding below the SNB’s estimates in Q4.
  • We look for the SNB to hike just once more, taking the key policy rate to only 1.0%.
  • The EZ labour market took the slowdown in Q3 on the chin, but surveys suggest resilience won’t last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The October Inflation Data are a Halloween Nightmare for the ECB

  • EZ inflation zoomed higher in October, and we now fear it will stay at 10% or higher in Q4.
  • Core inflation will remain close to 5% in Q4, and above 4% through the first quarter.
  • EZ GDP growth defied our expectations of a fall in Q3, but the slowdown is real, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Rose in Q3, just, but We Expect it to Fall in Q4

  • National Q3 GDP data, out on Friday, mean we have to revise up our forecast for the EZ release today.
  • We now look for an increase in GDP in Q3, albeit of just 0.1% q/q; GDP is still on course to fall in Q4.
  • National inflation data suggest the peak in the EZ headline isn’t in yet; it rose this month, to 10.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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