Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
- Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
- We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.
In one line: Industrial production should rebound soon; services are softening.
- EZ auto sales fell in 2021, again, though we suspect they rebounded in Q4, after a terrible Q3.
- Investment by EZ auto-makers has fallen in line with weakening production, due to supply-side woes…
- …But employment has rebounded strongly, pointing to underlying confidence in the future.
- Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
- With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
- This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.
- We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
- Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
- Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.
- Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
- Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
- An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.
- Valuations point to subpar returns for euro area large-cap equities in the post-pandemic expansion.
- Equities in Spain and Italy are priced for average returns of around 10% in the next five years…
- …The corresponding numbers for German and French equities are just 5% and 2½%, respectively.
- Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
- We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
- Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.
- EZ unemployment fell further in November, due to an improvement in all major economies.
- Unemployment in the euro area will fall below 7% soon, even with Omicron now a near-term threat.
- Our labour market forecasts imply accelerating wage growth in 2022; the ECB will take note.
- Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
- Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
- EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.
- German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
- ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
- Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.
- The December PMIs indicate that EZ manufacturing production is now outpacing services output.
- German GDP growth underperformed in Q4, according to the PMIs; Spain did relatively well.
- French consumer sentiment remained resilient in Q4, but we look for a setback in Q1.
In one line: Expect further falls in the PMI.
- Omicron is less of a burden on hospitals than Delta, but surging cases will still lead to restrictions in Q1.
- Warm weather and energy imports are driving a fall in natural gas prices; good news for consumers.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth points to a further fall in the EZ composite PMI in Q1, to about 52.
- The upward revision to Q3 GDP in Spain still leaves it further below the Q4 2019 level than elsewhere...
- ...The recovery has now slowed sharply; we look for just 1.0% growth in Q4; risks are to the downside.
- Data over the holidays are likely to show soft retail sales and yet more softening in business surveys.
- The ECB’s data continue to paint a less dramatic picture of trade in goods than Eurostat's numbers.
- Net services exports likely will jump in Q4, but this will be offset in part by a fall in IP capex.
- The euro glut has expanded during the pandemic, due mainly to a rise in EZ foreign equity holdings.
- Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
- Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
- The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.
In one line: More evidence of a near-term slowdown.
The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.
ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.
The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.
In one line: Decent headlines, but the virus is hitting services.