Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

growth

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

  • The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
  • …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
  • We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

  • We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
  • Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
  • Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

  • German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
  • The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
  • The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

  • Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
  • ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
  • ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Oct 2021 On the Meaning of "Transitory" Inflation in the Eurozone

  • Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
  • Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
  • Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

  • The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
  • Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
  • We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

  • Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. 

    Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this. 

    Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2021 A Traffic Light or a New Grand Coalition in Germany

  • Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome.
  • Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to about 55 in Q4.
  • Bank lending to non-financial firms is now rising again, slightly; the trend has slowed.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2021 How Quickly will Germany and Italy Slow in Q4?

  • The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
  • ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Sept 2021 GDP Growth in the EZ is Now Slowing, but How Quickly

  • The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
  • We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
  • No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2021 Another SNB Snoozefest; Limited Impact from Evergrande on EZ

  • No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
  • The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
  • Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

  • Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
  • Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
  • The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.

Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.

Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

  • A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
  • The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

  • Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
  • Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
  • We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

  • EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
  • EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
  • Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2021 The EZ Industrial Slumber Continues, but Italy is Doing Fine

  • Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
  • Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
  • ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence