Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
- German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
- The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
- The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.
- Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
- ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
- ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
- Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
- Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
- Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome.
- Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to about 55 in Q4.
- Bank lending to non-financial firms is now rising again, slightly; the trend has slowed.
- The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
- ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
- The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
- Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.
- Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
- Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
- The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.
Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.
Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
- Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
- We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
- Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
- Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
- ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.