Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
government
In one line: Still in line with the ECB’s conviction of economic resilience.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not following Germany into recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Domestic demand has softened, but net exports are rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Spain was likely the best performer among the big four in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
- ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
- We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Revised up but GDP growth still slowed sharply in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ budget deficit fell in Q2; we think it will widen to year-end, but are revising down our 2022 forecast.
- Fiscal plans for 2023, and slower nominal growth, point to a deficit of 3.5% next year, as in 2022.
- Interest costs are rising, as government bond yields creep higher, but the debt ratio will still fall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The new Italian government needs to be careful if it wants to avoid a U.K.-style market meltdown.
- The SNB has been intervening in FX markets again; we doubt it wants CHF 0.95 per euro forever.
- The EU agrees to disagree on a joint response to the energy crisis, as Germany draws more criticism.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
- Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
- BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
- Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
- Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB goes big with a 75bp rate hike, and we are inclined to look for another 75bp in October.
- We think the ECB wants to get its main policy rates to 2-to-2.5%, between now and Q1 next year.
- The ECB now sees the EZ economy stalling in H2-22, but rates will continue to increase.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
- Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
- Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid across the board, which should tip the ECB towards 75bp this week.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The SNB will continue its hiking cycle, despite slowing GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
