Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

government

19 Jan 2022 EZ Auto Sales and Capex Remain Weak, but Employment is Rising

  • EZ auto sales fell in 2021, again, though we suspect they rebounded in Q4, after a terrible Q3.
  • Investment by EZ auto-makers has fallen in line with weakening production, due to supply-side woes…
  • …But employment has rebounded strongly, pointing to underlying confidence in the future.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

4 Jan 2022 Omicron is Milder than Delta, but it will Still Hold Back the EZ in Q1

  • Omicron is less of a burden on hospitals than Delta, but surging cases will still lead to restrictions in Q1.
  • Warm weather and energy imports are driving a fall in natural gas prices; good news for consumers.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth points to a further fall in the EZ composite PMI in Q1, to about 52. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

24 Dec 2021 Spain Still the Laggard, Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • The upward revision to Q3 GDP in Spain still leaves it further below the Q4 2019 level than elsewhere...
  • ...The recovery has now slowed sharply; we look for just 1.0% growth in Q4; risks are to the downside.
  • Data over the holidays are likely to show soft retail sales and yet more softening in business surveys.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

23 Dec 2021 End in Sight for Surge in Energy Inflation, but Uncertainty Persists

  • Gas prices have further to rise in the short term boosting energy inflation into Q1.
  • But easing demand and base effects will then bring gas inflation hurtling down.
  • Political tensions with Russia, and Germany's plans to wind down nuclear energy, present upside risks.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

10 Dec 2021 Real Net Exports in Germany are Rebounding, We Think

  • Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
  • Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
  • The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3

In one line: Consumers’ spending rocketed in Q3; now comes the slowdown.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Nov 2021 We're Slashing our Q4 Forecasts in France, Despite Great Surveys

  • The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
  • …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
  • We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

12 Nov 2021 EZ Households have Financial Firepower, but will they Use it?

  • EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
  • The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
  • ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Nov 2021 Italian Reforms are Coming; will they make a Difference to Growth?

  • Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
  • ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
  • We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

27 Oct 2021 What Happened in the Eurozone Economy in Q3?

  • French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
  • Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
  • Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence