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We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
The ECB did not use its entire PEPP envelope and diverged from the capital key also in the APP.
Reinvestments will be used flexibly to cap spreads; rumours suggest cross-country purchases started.
Our estimates point to a maximum of €10B worth of PEPP reinvestments for BTPs; that’s not enough.
The ECB responds to market fragmentation, but it still needs to deliver something concrete, eventually.
If the SNB raises its inflation forecast to 2% or above for 2023 and 2024, hikes are coming.
An unwinding of favourable bank deposit tiering levels or softer language on the CHF, imply the same.
We think the ECB’s pain threshold for BTP spreads is 300-to-350bp, much higher than in the past.
An explicit commitment to an active use of PEPP reinvestments is the most likely initial response.
BTP spreads will rise further in the near term, but Italian 10-year bonds are attractive in their own right
The ECB will lift its deposit rate by 25bp in July, and follow up with a 50bp hike in September.
Beyond September, we now pencil-in three 25bp hikes; in October, December and February.
The bloodbath in Italian bond markets will soon be a problem for the ECB; new tools are needed.
The ECB will cross the Rubicon today, priming markets for the first rate hikes since 2011.
We still think the deposit rate will be zero by July, probably via a 50bp rate hike next month.
The ECB’s new forecasts will be stagflationary; the 2024 baseline for inflation will increase to 2%.
The EU finally agrees on a Russian oil embargo, but pipeline oil to Eastern Europe will keep flowing.
We now see a real risk of panic at the ECB; the deposit rate will be at zero by July.
Revised data show that Italy’s economy actually grew in Q1 while Swiss GDP beat expectations.
The ECB is nailing its colours to the mast; the deposit rate will be hiked in July and September.
The euro is a decent predictor for import price inflation in some goods, but not for the core HICP.
Soaring PPI inflation points to sustained upside risks for core consumer goods inflation in Q2.
BTP yields have risen further than their counterparts in recent months, as ECB tightening edges closer.
More issuance and the end to QE point to a further increase in long-term bond yields in Italy.
The BTP yield curve will steepen further, despite higher ECB policy rates driving up short rates.
EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.
We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.
Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
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