Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
governing council
- We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
- The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
- Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB goes big with a 75bp rate hike, and we are inclined to look for another 75bp in October.
- We think the ECB wants to get its main policy rates to 2-to-2.5%, between now and Q1 next year.
- The ECB now sees the EZ economy stalling in H2-22, but rates will continue to increase.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
- Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
- Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
- The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
- EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
