Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Miserable, mainly due to soaring prices.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Revisions will change the story for EZ GDP soon; Core inflation will stay at 4% through Q3.
In one line: Core inflation is still rising, quickly.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
In one line: National core inflation fell, but the HICP core likely rose
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
In one line: Grim, but one-off factors should support income and spending in Q3.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.
In one line: This week’s ECB meeting is now a coin-toss between 25bp and 50bp.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.
Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.
A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.
Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.
French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.
EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.
In one line: Food and energy inflation are still rising; the core is close to a peak.
In one line: The core was depressed by fiscal measures; it will snap back in September.
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