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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

goods

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, March 2022

In one line: Doing better than elsewhere, but still feeling the pinch from higher input costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2022 No Change to our SNB Forecast, Despite More Hikes from the ECB

 We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...

...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.

EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial production & Trade, Eurozone, February

In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Apr 2022 What are Governments Doing to Combat Rising Energy Prices?

The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices. 

More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least. 

Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Apr 2022 A Russian Energy Embargo Likely Would Send EURUSD to Parity

The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.

A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.

German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Apr 2022 The German Economy is Down, But Not Out, at Least Not Yet

German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.

Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.

Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Apr 2022 EZ Inflation is Taking no Prisoners; Don't Expect Relief in Q2

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was still soaring at the end of Q1, and it could well go higher still.
  • Energy inflation is a wildcard; we think it will remain above 40% y/y through April and May.
  • The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts again; QE will end in June, with a rate hike in September

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Mar 2022 EZ Survey Data Stayed Resilient in March, For the Most Part

  • Household confidence in the euro area plunged in March, but business surveys held up.
  • Private sector activity was still expanding at a decent clip at the end of Q1, but storm clouds are gathering.
  • The policy rate at the SNB isn't going anywhere, but the bank will intervene in FX markets, if needed.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, EZ, January 2022

In one line: Stabilising; portfolio flows likely are slowing sharply in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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