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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.
In one line: Doing better than elsewhere, but still feeling the pinch from higher input costs.
We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...
...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.
EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.
They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.
The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.
In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust.
The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices.
More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least.
Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP.
The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.
A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.
German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.
Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.
Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.
In one line: Stabilising; portfolio flows likely are slowing sharply in Q1.
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