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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
In one line: Inflation is no longer acceleration, but it will remain elevated for a while.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
In one line: Production fell by just over 1% in Q2; we doubt Q3 will be better.
In one line: Demand is softening; production fell by less than we feared in Q2.
In one line: Lifted by improving net trade with China, the UK and Russia.
Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.
Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.
Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.
In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.
In one line: A tough few months ahead for industry.
In one line: Miserable, mainly due to soaring prices.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.
In one line: National core inflation fell, but the HICP core likely rose
In one line: Households fear running out of energy this winter.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
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