Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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In one line: On track for a record-low of 7% by year-end.
- Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
- ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
- ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
In one line: Germany's jobless rate has further to fall.
- The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
- ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
- GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.
- Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
- ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
- The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
- The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
- Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
In one line: GDP growth is now slowing sharply.
- EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
- ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
- We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
- The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
- Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
- Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.
- GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
- Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
- Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.
- EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
- We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
- The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.
In one line: EZ Jobless rate has further to fall.
- The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
- EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
- It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.
- Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
- ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
- We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.
- The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
- France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
- We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
- A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
- Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.