Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
gdp growth
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
- Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
- We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
- Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
- ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
- Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
- The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
- The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
- Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
- Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
- We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: More evidence that activity peaked midway through Q3
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Decent, but probably not the beginning of a sustained upturn.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment.
- Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is sideways.
- Spain should grow faster than elsewhere in Q3 and perhaps even Q4, but will continue to lag its peers
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
- The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
- Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Swiss economy had regained more of its Covid losses than the euro area as of Q2.
- We still expect it to complete its recovery in Q3, ahead of the EZ, and grow by 3.5% overall this year.
- The outperformance and incoming ECB PEPP taper will push up the CHF; a headache for the SNB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Swiss economy remains in a league of its own.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing output is still hampered by supply-side woes, but it's not all bad news.
- Unemployment in the EZ fell further at the start of Q3; we think the good news will keep coming.
- SPD's lead in the German polls is startling, but not yet a game-changer for the final outcome.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation is running hot, and it will rise further in Q4; will markets and the ECB flinch?
- German unemployment fell further midway through Q3, and further improvement is in store.
- Consumers' spending, ex-services, in France dipped in July, but Q3 as a whole will be decent.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
- PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
- The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
- The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
- Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- There are many statistical hurdles to overcome to include housing costs into the EZ HICP...
- ...A rough & ready estimate suggests inflation would have been 0.3pp higher, on average, since 2011.
- Even if house price growth continues to accelerate, we doubt it will lead to tighter monetary policy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Banks went into the crisis in a relatively healthy state; much better than in 2007.
- The jump in emergency loans during Covid is un- likely to be destabilizing, even if some of it turns sour.
- Stress tests show that banks can handle a jump in NPLs, and foreign risks are generally limited.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
- Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
- We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
