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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.
We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.
Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.
Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...
...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.
Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.
In one line: Still consistent with slowing GDP growth.
In one line: Q2 revision means activity marginally picked up pace in Q3.
The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.
Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.
The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.
In one line: Solid, but we remain confident that growth is slowing.
The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming.
German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1.
We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus.
The new budget in Italy means consumption growth will slow less than we previously thought in 2023.
Financial markets welcomed the budget; we are revising down our call for the rise in the BTP yield.
We look for the yield to rise to 4.0%, and we think it will stay around that level for most of next year.
In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.
In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.
In one line: Hinting at a downward Q3 GDP revision
In one line: Upward revision nothing to write home about.
In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good.
In one line: Surprisingly solid; likely boosted by a leap in car sales.
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