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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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gdp growth

2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2022

In one line: Q2 revision means activity marginally picked up pace in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor We See no Green Shoots in the Eurozone Money Supply Data

The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.

Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.

The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Don't be Fooled by Robust Q3 German GDP data

The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming. 

German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1. 

We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy's Meloni Avoids a Truss 2.0 Moment, Despite Higher Spend

The new budget in Italy means consumption growth will slow less than we previously thought in 2023. 

Financial markets welcomed the budget; we are revising down our call for the rise in the BTP yield. 

We look for the yield to rise to 4.0%, and we think it will stay around that level for most of next year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The PMIs Still Suggest that a Q4 fall in EZ GDP is a Sure Bet

  • The PMI remains consistent with a bigger fall in GDP than we expect in Q4, despite rising in November.
  • Price pressures have eased, supporting our call for an ECB pivot to slower rate hikes from next month.
  • The EU-agreed gas price cap will work to our favour here too; preventing price hikes at times of stress.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Downturn Confirmed; The EZ is Still on Course for a Recession

  • The second release of EZ Q3 GDP confirmed the downturn and a slowdown in productivity growth.
  • The nominal goods trade deficit narrowed in September; it will likely continue to do so in Q4.
  • Still, we think that net trade will contribute to a fall in GDP this quarter and next.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy Uses "Savings" to Offer More Aid Against the Energy Crisis

  • Italy’s new €9B aid package is skewed towards helping firms more than households, we think.
  • It will not prevent a fall in GDP this quarter; the 2023 budget is coming, so brace for a rise in BTP yields.
  • EZ energy-intensive industries recorded a fifth monthly fall in output in September; more is coming.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The October Inflation Data are a Halloween Nightmare for the ECB

  • EZ inflation zoomed higher in October, and we now fear it will stay at 10% or higher in Q4.
  • Core inflation will remain close to 5% in Q4, and above 4% through the first quarter.
  • EZ GDP growth defied our expectations of a fall in Q3, but the slowdown is real, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2022

In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Rose in Q3, just, but We Expect it to Fall in Q4

  • National Q3 GDP data, out on Friday, mean we have to revise up our forecast for the EZ release today.
  • We now look for an increase in GDP in Q3, albeit of just 0.1% q/q; GDP is still on course to fall in Q4.
  • National inflation data suggest the peak in the EZ headline isn’t in yet; it rose this month, to 10.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q3-2022

In one line: Surprisingly solid; likely boosted by a leap in car sales.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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