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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
In one line: A solid finish to Q2 in manufacturing; net exports in services are soaring.
In one line: Eurostat’s measure shows no “refugee effect”.
In one line: A tough few months ahead for industry.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Core inflation is still rising, quickly.
In one line: Robust, but it was all net exports and inventories.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
In one line: Grim, but one-off factors should support income and spending in Q3.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.
Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.
The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.
Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.
The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.
The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.
Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.
Core inflation in Germany was depressed by one-off fiscal measures in June; it will rebound in September.
French HICP core inflation likely peaked in June, but it is still rising sharply in Spain.
EZ industrial production surprised to the upside in May, but we still think it fell over Q2 as a whole.
In one line: Food and energy inflation are still rising; the core is close to a peak.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
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