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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
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