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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

forecasters

23 Feb 2022 The Conflict in Ukraine Will Keep EZ Energy Inflation Elevated

  • The situation in Ukraine is unpredictable, but one thing is certain, energy inflation will remain hot.
  • Sanctions to curb the flow of energy from Russia to the EZ are the main economic threat.
  • The Bundesbank believes Germany has entered a technical recession; the survey data beg to differ.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Feb 2022 More Evidence that the ECB is About to Make a Hawkish Shift

  • Comments from Mr. Lane and Ms. Schnabel add to evidence of a hawkish shift in ECB policy.
  • French core inflation fell in January, but it will re- bound quickly, to 2.0%, where it will stay through Q3.
  • EZ construction fell in Q4, again, and consumer sentiment remained soft midway through Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Feb 2022 The ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle; Will it Work?

  • The ECB is pushing back against the dramatic shift in forecasters’ expectations for tighter policy.
  • German core inflation fell only slightly in January; the core HICP rate will rise to 3.5% by April.
  • The Swiss don’t have an inflation problem, unlike their neighbour, despite the rise in prices in January.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

7 Feb 2022 Surveying the Damage; How Quickly will the ECB Go?

  • The cat is out the bag; forecasters and markets now look for a significant shift in ECB policy this year...
  • ...We concur, to a point; we think QE will end in October, before a 20bp deposit rate hike in January.
  • German factory orders rebounded at the end of Q4, but industrial production in France stalled.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

10 Dec 2021 Real Net Exports in Germany are Rebounding, We Think

  • Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
  • Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
  • The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

  • We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
  • Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
  • …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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