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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The ECB responds to market fragmentation, but it still needs to deliver something concrete, eventually.
If the SNB raises its inflation forecast to 2% or above for 2023 and 2024, hikes are coming.
An unwinding of favourable bank deposit tiering levels or softer language on the CHF, imply the same.
The neutral rate in the EZ is falling over time; it was likely negative immediately after the financial crisis.
We estimate the long-run neutral real rate to be 0.7% in the EZ, but the ECB policy rate won’t get that far.
We see the terminal ECB rate at 1.2-to-1.3%, 0.7-to- 0.6pp below current market-pricing.
The ECB will cross the Rubicon today, priming markets for the first rate hikes since 2011.
We still think the deposit rate will be zero by July, probably via a 50bp rate hike next month.
The ECB’s new forecasts will be stagflationary; the 2024 baseline for inflation will increase to 2%.
The ECB is nailing its colours to the mast; the deposit rate will be hiked in July and September.
The euro is a decent predictor for import price inflation in some goods, but not for the core HICP.
Soaring PPI inflation points to sustained upside risks for core consumer goods inflation in Q2.
EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
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