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- Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
- Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
- An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.
The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.
ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.
The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.
- Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
- ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
- The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.
- We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
- Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
- …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.
- EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
- Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
- A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
- The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote.
- The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition isn't clear.
- All eyes on the combined tally of the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke; +50% and bunds will suffer.
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
- The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
- Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
- The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.
Peruvian New Sol — President Castillo already on fire
Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off
Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the Recovery and Resilience Fund, or RFF.
With Mr. Biden recently installed in the Oval office, and the Conservative government in the U.K. not battling for re-election until 2024, the main sources of political risk for investors will come from Europe in the next 12 months.