Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.
The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.
Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.
In one line: The core was depressed by fiscal measures; it will snap back in September.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
Italy’s budget deficit will narrow further this year, but it will stay wider than policymakers expect.
The government has lowered its expectation for the impact of EU recovery funds; it’s still too high.
Germany’s push for the return of the SGP is falling on deaf ears; it won’t come back in the same form.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.
We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.
France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.
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