- German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
- Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
- We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment.
- Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is sideways.
- Spain should grow faster than elsewhere in Q3 and perhaps even Q4, but will continue to lag its peers
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Solid, but driven almost exclusively by major export orders to non-EZ economies.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
- PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
- The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
German factory orders surged in June, more than reversing May's plunge ...
... But turnover data point to a weak end to Q2 for industry; we look for a 0.5% monthly fall in June.
French industry continued to tread water; even though car output rose for the first time this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone.
The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells off at the SNB...
... but a stronger franc all but cements the need for higher FX intervention.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.
We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.
Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised decline in April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday's main economic reports point to mixed conditions in euro area manufacturing at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not terrible, but tomorrow’s production data won’t be pretty.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Inflation in the euro area increased further midway through the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday's two key economic reports provided a snapshot of German's economy at two very different points in time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Judging by the PMIs alone, the private sector in the euro area has put the virus in its rearview mirror. Data on Friday showed that the composite EZ PMI improved further midway through Q2, rising to 56.9 in May from 53.8 in April, extending the rebound which began in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The ECB has been struggling to send a clear message to markets in the past few months.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Friday's data in the core EZ economies confirmed our suspicion that the reality in manufacturing at the start of the year was not as rosy as implied by the headline surveys and new orders data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The EZ delivered consensus-beating data yesterday.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
