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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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factory orders

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Grim; brace for a big downside surprise in production tomorrow. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Apr 2022 The German Economy is Down, But Not Out, at Least Not Yet

German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.

Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.

Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, February 2022

In one line: A setback had been coming; turnover points to a fall in core output in February. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Mar 2022 EZ Survey Data Stayed Resilient in March, For the Most Part

  • Household confidence in the euro area plunged in March, but business surveys held up.
  • Private sector activity was still expanding at a decent clip at the end of Q1, but storm clouds are gathering.
  • The policy rate at the SNB isn't going anywhere, but the bank will intervene in FX markets, if needed.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Mar 2022 EZ Construction Rebounds; is the Services Trade Revival Stalling?

  • Construction in the EZ started the year on a strong footing, finally rising back to pre-pandemic levels...
  • ...But supply constraints will hold back supply in the sector for the remainder of this year.
  • EZ portfolio outflows weakened at the start of the year, and will soften further in coming months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

22 Feb 2022 Surveys Suggest Activity is Holding Up Better than Expected

  • PMI data for February surprised on the upside; services activity is rebounding faster than expected.
  • We are raising our Q1 EZ GDP growth forecast, by 0.3pp, to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
  • Pricing intentions surged again, piling pressure on the ECB to unwind stimulus measures.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Feb 2022 German Industrial Output Rose in Q4; But it is Still Lags New Orders

  • German industrial production rebounded in Q4, but not enough to reverse a terrible third quarter.
  • We look for a further increase in Q1, but the gap between output and new orders will remain wide.
  • Surveys point to a quick rebound in construction, but supply-side constraints remain a big challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Feb 2022 Surveying the Damage; How Quickly will the ECB Go?

  • The cat is out the bag; forecasters and markets now look for a significant shift in ECB policy this year...
  • ...We concur, to a point; we think QE will end in October, before a 20bp deposit rate hike in January.
  • German factory orders rebounded at the end of Q4, but industrial production in France stalled.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, December

In one line: New orders rebounded strongly at the end of 2021.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Feb 2022 The ECB Sets the Stage for Accelerated Taper, and Rate Hikes

  • The ECB is preparing markets for a hawkish policy shift in March; QE will end this year.
  • We now look for three rate hikes in the first half of 2023; in January, March and June.
  • The PMIs confirm that Omicron hit services hard in January, especially in southern Europe.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

25 Jan 2022 The EZ PMIs Remain Resilient, but Still Point to Slower Growth in Q1

  • The PMIs point to evidence of easing supply-side constraints at the start of the year…
  • ...But manufacturing is not out of the woods yet, and services activity is being depressed by restrictions.
  • We are sticking to our view that GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q1, after a 0.6% increase in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

7 Jan 2022 German Industrial Production Came Back Strongly in Q4

  • German factory orders are running hotter than manufacturing production...
  • ...And the jump in manufacturing turnover points to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • Headline inflation in Germany was broadly stable in December, but the core rate rose further.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, November 2021

In one line: Orders rebound; turnover points to consensus-beating production data tomorrow.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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