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In one line: Grim; brace for a big downside surprise in production tomorrow.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.
Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.
Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.
In one line: A setback had been coming; turnover points to a fall in core output in February.
In one line: New orders rebounded strongly at the end of 2021.
In one line: Orders rebound; turnover points to consensus-beating production data tomorrow.
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