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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ez core

3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A record high, but it still doesn’t justify rate expectations. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France, October & November

In one line: Spending starts Q4 on a weak foot; energy inflation drives the headline higher in November.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October 2021

In one line: A few more high numbers are on the way, before the drop in Q1. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Nov 2021 We're Holding on to our Outlook for Q4; by the Skin of our Teeth

  • EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
  • We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
  • Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, October 2021

In one line: Energy inflation is still rocketing; the core is held up by robust services inflation. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Nov 2021 Italy set to Underperform Spain's Labour Market Recovery

  • EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
  • ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
  • We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

PM Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, October 2021

In one line: Still going up, but the upturn in the core is levelling off. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

5 Nov 2021 More Evidence that German Manufacturing Hit a Wall in Q3

  • German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
  • Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east. 
  • The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q3 GDP & Inflation, Eurozone

In one line: EZ GDP is within touching distance of its pre-virus level; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2021

In one line: Boosted by higher energy inflation; the core likely rose fractionally. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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