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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the surplus in services is soaring.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
In one line: Stung by a collapse in exports to Russia; imports are still rising sharply.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.
Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.
Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.
In one line: Solid; net trade probably boosted Q1 GDP growth.
In one line: Is the EZ trade balance rebounding? Wage growth remained muted in 2021
In one line: The deficit in goods narrowed on the eve of new sanctions against Russia.
In one line: We look for a slightly bigger expansion in Q1.
In one line: The slide in Germany's trade surplus stopped ahead of new Russian sanctions.
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