In one line: Solid, but we remain confident that growth is slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services exports have held back the EZ services balance since June, despite the summer tourist season.
- Risk aversion means EZ investors again dumped foreign assets in September; this will continue.
- The rise in prices of durable goods items, which is partly driving core inflation higher, is broad-based.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hinting at a downward Q3 GDP revision
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Another day, another weak survey; will the hard data fall too?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
- ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
- The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Net trade was a drag on growth in Q3, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The French trade deficit is still widening.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMIs weakened further in September, and we fear further declines lie ahead.
- Industrial output in French transport equipment jumped by 16% in August; the recovery looks real.
- German net exports of goods fell in Q3, but we think overall net trade rose, due to falling services imports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Net exports in goods likely softened in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
- We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
- Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Imports will rollover as the economy heads for recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-widening, but don’t forget the rising trend in net services trade.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid across the board, which should tip the ECB towards 75bp this week.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The SNB will continue its hiking cycle, despite slowing GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
- The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
- ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
