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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: All set for a big drop in Q1, but the core will rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A decent Q4 for construction, despite downward revisions.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU/EZ, December 2021

In one line: No recovery, but car sales likely rebounded slightly in Q4. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, November 2021

In one line: A surplus no more, but net trade still probably provided a little boost to GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: Distorted by Irish data; industry was probably a small drag on GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, November 2021

In one line: Joblessness is now below its pre-virus level; it will fall further in 2022. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment & Retail sales, Eurozone, December & November

In one line: ESI will decline again in January, decent retail sales won’t have prevented a slowdown in consumption growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: This is the peak, but the fall will be slow and uneven.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Jan 2022 Omicron is Milder than Delta, but it will Still Hold Back the EZ in Q1

  • Omicron is less of a burden on hospitals than Delta, but surging cases will still lead to restrictions in Q1.
  • Warm weather and energy imports are driving a fall in natural gas prices; good news for consumers.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth points to a further fall in the EZ composite PMI in Q1, to about 52. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Dec 2021 EZ Monetary Stimulus is Set to Slow Next Year, Virus Permitting

The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.

ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.

The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, October & Hourly Labour Costs, EZ, Q3

In one line: Trade is still on track to boost GDP growth this quarter; wage growth has further to rise. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, December

In one line: Decent headlines, but the virus is hitting services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence