- The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
- Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
- The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
- The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
- Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- There are many statistical hurdles to overcome to include housing costs into the EZ HICP...
- ...A rough & ready estimate suggests inflation would have been 0.3pp higher, on average, since 2011.
- Even if house price growth continues to accelerate, we doubt it will lead to tighter monetary policy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3.
The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3 forecast.
The EZ budget deficit remained wide in Q1, but it will come down as the economy recovers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation—see here—as the restrictions are eased.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday's euro area trade data from Eurostat were alarmingly poor.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In preview, we still think the central bank is setting the bar a bit too high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday was a busy day in the Eurozone and today will be even busier.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The upturn in euro area manufacturing stalled midway through the first quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
