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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2022 Look Closely, and the Data Point to Early Signs of Weakness in the EZ

A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.

We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.

Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2022 ECB Hawks will Use the May HICP Data to Push for 50bp in July

Advance inflation in Germany and Spain hints at an upside surprise in today’s EZ HICP data for May.

Core HICP inflation in Germany will rise above 4% over the summer, adding to the pressure on the ECB.

The EU still hasn’t agreed on a Russian oil ban, but all eyes on Brussels today for a breakthrough.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 May 2022 The ECB is Clear as Rain; the First Rate Hike will Come in July

The ECB is nailing its colours to the mast; the deposit rate will be hiked in July and September.

The euro is a decent predictor for import price inflation in some goods, but not for the core HICP.

Soaring PPI inflation points to sustained upside risks for core consumer goods inflation in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Apr 2022 What are Governments Doing to Combat Rising Energy Prices?

The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices. 

More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least. 

Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Apr 2022 France is Set for Another Face-Off Between Macron and Le Pen

The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.

Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.

Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Mar 2022 Brace for the First Post-War Data in the Eurozone Economy

  • Investor sentiment points to a fall in this week's eco- nomic surveys; brace for downside surprises.
  • Near-real-time data signal little in the way of a direct hit to activity from the war in Ukraine, yet.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January; is the deficit with China now shrinking?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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