Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a full list of our Eurozone Publications.

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europe

4 Jan 2021 A Brexit Deal and Vaccine Roll-out, but the Virus is Crushing Growth

The Christmas break brought two pieces of good news to EZ investors, though in both cases they were expected. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:32Eurozone

24 Dec 2020 What if the Consensus is Wrong About the Post-Covid World

This is our final report before we sign off for Christmas, and we'll use it to ask the question of what the consensus might be getting wrong about the economy next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)23rd Dec 2020 19:10Eurozone

22 Dec 2020 Will the ECB be Forced to Take Action on the Euro in Q1?

The dollar's fall from grace has been one of the most spectacular shifts in global asset markets through 2020.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)21st Dec 2020 19:10Eurozone

20 Nov 2020 The Recovery Fund Hangs in the Balance, December will be Tense

The prospect of a fierce political battle over the EU's Recovery Fund is now a reality.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)19th Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

18 Nov 2020 Trend Growth in the EZ will soon be Pummeled by Demographics

In this Monitor, we'll finish our review of demographics in the Eurozone by looking at the macroeconomic consequences of population ageing, primarily growth and inflation

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)17th Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

17 Nov 2020 Population Ageing in Europe is about to Accelerate, Sharply

We have often highlighted population ageing as a key structural trend in the EZ, so with a quiet calender over the next few days, we'll spend our next two Monitors revisiting...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

16 Nov 2020 Separating Signal From Noise in the EZ Labour Market Data

We'll skip quickly past Friday's second Q3 growth estimate, which showed that EZ GDP jumped by 12.6% quarter-on-quarter, rebounding from an 11.8% crash in Q2, little...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

12 Nov 2020 Virus Cases are Now Falling, but Q4 GDP Won't be Pretty

In our last two Monitors we painted the picture of a bright world in which Covid-19 is swiftly vanquished by a vaccine next year. In this Monitor, we'll plant our feet back on...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)11th Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

4 Nov 2020 The Budget Deficit in France will Widen to 7% of GDP in 2020

The shift in France's public finances to lean against the economic damage from the virus has been significant.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

3 Nov 2020 Europe's People and Politicians Want a Biden Win, will they Get it?

Polls can be wrong, but we have to assume that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in today's election to become America's 46th president. If we are right, the people of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)2nd Nov 2020 19:10Eurozone

9 Oct 2020 An Update on EU Fiscal Stimulus, the Recovery Fund Faces Delay

On the surface, the EU's joint stimulus efforts are progressing nicely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)8th Oct 2020 20:10Eurozone

17 Sept 2020 Back to Normal for EZ External Trade or a New Story

The EZ trade surplus in goods all but evaporated during lockdown.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)16th Sep 2020 20:10Eurozone

4 Sep 2020 Did the PMIs Just Put the Recovery in the Euro Area On Notice

Yesterday's final PMI data for August confirmed that the composite index in the EZ fell to 51.9, from 54.9 in July, slightly higher than the first estimate, 51.6.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)3rd Sep 2020 20:10Eurozone

26 Aug 2020 Germany's Economy Dodged a Bullet in H1, Relatively Speaking

Yesterday's detailed Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed that economic output nosedived during lockdown, but also showed that the economy was resilient compared to the rest of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)25th Aug 2020 18:30Eurozone

11 Aug 2020 How Worried Should we be Over Spain's Economic Misery

Markets tend to look to Italy as the canary in the coalmine for signs of stress in the EZ economy and financial markets, but we recommend keeping a close eye on Spain too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)10th Aug 2020 20:10Eurozone

6 Aug 2020 Strong EZ PMIs and Retail Sales Overstate the Economy's Strength

Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)5th Aug 2020 20:10Eurozone

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