Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
- ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
- The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
- French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
- In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
- The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
- An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
- We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
- Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east.
- The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
- EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
- It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.
Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone
- A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
- …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
- Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
- The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
- Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
- ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
- We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
- The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
- Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
- Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
- We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
- The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
- We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
