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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

europe

3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

12 Nov 2021 EZ Households have Financial Firepower, but will they Use it?

  • EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
  • The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
  • ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

11 Nov 2021 Q3 GDP in Spain will be Revised Higher, but only Slightly

  • Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
  • An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
  • We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

5 Nov 2021 More Evidence that German Manufacturing Hit a Wall in Q3

  • German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
  • Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east. 
  • The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Oct 2021 How will the EZ Respond to Rising Virus Cases in Q4?

  • A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
  • …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
  • Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2021 The EZ Trade Deficits With Asia and China are Widening, Quickly

  • EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
  • The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
  • Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

  • Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
  • ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
  • Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Sept 2021 GDP Growth in the EZ is Now Slowing, but How Quickly

  • The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
  • We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
  • No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

  • A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
  • The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

  • The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
  • ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
  • We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27Aug 2021 Europe Still has Low Birthrates, but they're Not Falling Anymore

  • European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
  • The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
  • Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Aug 2021 Did the Eurozone Survey Data Soften Midway through Q3?

  • The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
  • Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
  • We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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