- © 2020 Pantheon Macroeconomics
- Tel: +1 914 610 3830
Pantheon Macroeconomics
Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Investors start to price in an EZ recession.
Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.
A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...
...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.
The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.
We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.
This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.
The SNB threw a bazooka yesterday, hiking interest rates and doing a U-turn on its approach to the CHF.
As a result, the franc saw its biggest intra-day jump vs. the euro since the Frankenshock of 2015.
We look for the Bank to hike rates again at each of this year’s two remaining meetings, before pausing.
We think the ECB’s pain threshold for BTP spreads is 300-to-350bp, much higher than in the past.
An explicit commitment to an active use of PEPP reinvestments is the most likely initial response.
BTP spreads will rise further in the near term, but Italian 10-year bonds are attractive in their own right
The neutral rate in the EZ is falling over time; it was likely negative immediately after the financial crisis.
We estimate the long-run neutral real rate to be 0.7% in the EZ, but the ECB policy rate won’t get that far.
We see the terminal ECB rate at 1.2-to-1.3%, 0.7-to- 0.6pp below current market-pricing.
Mortgage rates in the EZ tend to trend in line with the main ECB policy rates, so they will rise this year.
Around a fifth of mortgages incur a variable rate and so are sensitive to changes in ECB policy rates.
Households can withstand higher borrowing costs, but growth in house prices will slow significantly.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
Advance inflation in Germany and Spain hints at an upside surprise in today’s EZ HICP data for May.
Core HICP inflation in Germany will rise above 4% over the summer, adding to the pressure on the ECB.
The EU still hasn’t agreed on a Russian oil ban, but all eyes on Brussels today for a breakthrough.
Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.
The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.
We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
The ECB is nailing its colours to the mast; the deposit rate will be hiked in July and September.
The euro is a decent predictor for import price inflation in some goods, but not for the core HICP.
Soaring PPI inflation points to sustained upside risks for core consumer goods inflation in Q2.
The EZ’s current account plunged to a deficit at the end of Q1, and it will likely stay there in Q2.
EZ portfolio outflows are plunging, reflecting rising economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Construction in the euro area performed solidly in Q1, but it will slow sharply in Q2.
EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.
We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.
Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
EZ GDP rose a tad quicker than initially estimated in Q1, lifting the carry-over for full-year growth in 2022.
Employment in the EZ is rising quicker than implied by GDP growth, but we still think it will slow in H2.
Women are driving the gains in EZ employment and labour force participation; that’s good news.
In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here.
In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Change View: List Small Grid
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence