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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.
The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.
The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.
Higher inflation for longer will lead to higher interest rates, which will support banks’ interest margins.
This implies higher profits, which makes bank equities attractive right now.
But risks to the profit outlook remain in the form of windfall taxes and falling demand for loans.
In one line: A rebound, boosted by primary income and services.
Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.
Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.
Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.
The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.
Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.
Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
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