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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here.
In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...
...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.
EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.
Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.
But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.
German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.
All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.
We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.
The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.
We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.
France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
In one line: Small downward revision doesn’t change the picture of hot inflation.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices.
More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least.
Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP.
The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.
A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.
German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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