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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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24 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy's New Government Faces a Balancing Act on its Budget

  • The new Italian government needs to be careful if it wants to avoid a U.K.-style market meltdown.
  • The SNB has been intervening in FX markets again; we doubt it wants CHF 0.95 per euro forever.
  • The EU agrees to disagree on a joint response to the energy crisis, as Germany draws more criticism. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Crashed at the Start of the Third Quarter

  • The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
  • Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
  • Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB will Join the 75bp Rate Hike Club This Month

  • The rise in inflation since the SNB’s last meeting means it will surely raise rates on September 22.
  • The ECB went big last week; the SNB will follow suit as it seems happy with current franc strength.
  • In Q4 we think the SNB will hike by 50bp, much less than the 125bp we expect from the ECB.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Windfall Taxes are a Risk to the Profit Outlook of EZ Banks

Higher inflation for longer will lead to higher interest rates, which will support banks’ interest margins.

This implies higher profits, which makes bank equities attractive right now.

But risks to the profit outlook remain in the form of windfall taxes and falling demand for loans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy won't be Unscathed by the EZ Recession

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.5% in Q2, the same as in Q1, and more or less in line with the EZ aggregate.
  • The German recession will weigh on Swiss industry in H2, and consumers’ income is being squeezed.
  • We look for GDP growth broadly to stagnate in H2, but the SNB is still likely to hike rates further

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Equities will Struggle to Build on their Recent Gains

Equities want to believe in a monetary policy pivot; we don’t share their optimism.

Valuations are now attractive for EZ equities, but we still think earnings have further to fall.

Eurostoxx 50 will fall 4% by year-end; we see gains of 10% and 13% in ’23 and ’24, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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