Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
euro
In one line: The headline has peaked, but the core hasn’t, and that’s a problem for the ECB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft CPI, partly due to the 2023 change in weights.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The new Italian government needs to be careful if it wants to avoid a U.K.-style market meltdown.
- The SNB has been intervening in FX markets again; we doubt it wants CHF 0.95 per euro forever.
- The EU agrees to disagree on a joint response to the energy crisis, as Germany draws more criticism.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
- The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
- Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
- Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
- Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone’s current account swung to a big deficit in July, playing catch-up with Eurostat’s data.
- Currency weakness is still mainly increasing the cost of imports; but exports will benefit, eventually.
- Portfolio in-and outflows are collapsing, and we think this trend has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
- Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
- Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in inflation since the SNB’s last meeting means it will surely raise rates on September 22.
- The ECB went big last week; the SNB will follow suit as it seems happy with current franc strength.
- In Q4 we think the SNB will hike by 50bp, much less than the 125bp we expect from the ECB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
- Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
- Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
- Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
- Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
