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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.
Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.
EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.
Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?
The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.
Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.
The ECB will cross the Rubicon today, priming markets for the first rate hikes since 2011.
We still think the deposit rate will be zero by July, probably via a 50bp rate hike next month.
The ECB’s new forecasts will be stagflationary; the 2024 baseline for inflation will increase to 2%.
EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.
We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.
Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
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