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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

euribor

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Playing a Risky Game, but it has no Choice

  • No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
  • But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
  • Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 July 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Economy is in a Tightening Stagflationary Vice

The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.

Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.

The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB goes big on rates, and Italy heads for elections

The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.

The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.

Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2022 Another Consensus-Beating CPI Print, But no 50bp Hike this Month

Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.

Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.

EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 June 2022 Are Bond Markets Moving from Inflation to Growth Fears?

Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?

The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.

Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 June 2022 A New Era Dawns, the First ECB Rate Hike Since 2011 is on the Way

The ECB will cross the Rubicon today, priming markets for the first rate hikes since 2011.

We still think the deposit rate will be zero by July, probably via a 50bp rate hike next month.

The ECB’s new forecasts will be stagflationary; the 2024 baseline for inflation will increase to 2%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 May 2022 EZ Core Inflation will Remain Above 3% Through 2023

EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.

We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.

Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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