Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
- German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
- Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
- Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
- The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
- The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
- Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
- ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
- ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
- Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
- Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.
- EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
- Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
- The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.
- The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
- Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
- We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
- The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote.
- The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition isn't clear.
- All eyes on the combined tally of the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke; +50% and bunds will suffer.
- Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
- Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
- The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.
Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.
Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.
- A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
- The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.
- Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
- Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
- We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.
- The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
- ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
- We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.
- EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
- EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
- Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.
- The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
- The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
- Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.
- The Swiss economy had regained more of its Covid losses than the euro area as of Q2.
- We still expect it to complete its recovery in Q3, ahead of the EZ, and grow by 3.5% overall this year.
- The outperformance and incoming ECB PEPP taper will push up the CHF; a headache for the SNB.