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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
In one line: Add low water levels in European rivers to the long list of factors that will weigh on industrial output in H2.
In one line: Core inflation pressures are intensifying
We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.
Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.
Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.
This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.
Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.
We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.
Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...
...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.
Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.
Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.
Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.
The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.
Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
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