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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy Uses "Savings" to Offer More Aid Against the Energy Crisis

  • Italy’s new €9B aid package is skewed towards helping firms more than households, we think.
  • It will not prevent a fall in GDP this quarter; the 2023 budget is coming, so brace for a rise in BTP yields.
  • EZ energy-intensive industries recorded a fifth monthly fall in output in September; more is coming.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe is Still Importing Russian Energy, but the Share is Falling

  • EZ imports of Russian oil and gas have dropped, but they remain well above zero...
  • ...The EU has made up more of the shortfall left by Russian energy in oil than in gas.
  • Filling gas storages next year will come at a higher price, especially if activity in Asia rebounds.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's €200B Energy Support is a Game-Changer for 2023

  • Germany’s €200B Double-Kaboom energy support package is a game-changer for households in 2023.
  • The PMIs say EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin; will Q4 official output data tell the same story?
  • German unemployment was unchanged in October, and the upturn in imports is petering out.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2022

In one line: Surprisingly strong; Q4 won’t be as good. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Italy's New Government Faces a Balancing Act on its Budget

  • The new Italian government needs to be careful if it wants to avoid a U.K.-style market meltdown.
  • The SNB has been intervening in FX markets again; we doubt it wants CHF 0.95 per euro forever.
  • The EU agrees to disagree on a joint response to the energy crisis, as Germany draws more criticism. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation & Construction, EZ, Sep/Aug

In one line:  Small downward revision not enough to convince the ECB to hike by less than 75bp next week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EURUSD is Set too Rise Above Parity in the Next Six Months

  • The EZ energy trade deficit with the U.S. will soon hit 1% of GDP, pointing to a structural hit to EURUSD.
  • This knock is difficult to quantify, but we suspect 1.00-to-1.10 is the new normal for EURUSD.
  • We still think EURUSD will rebound in the next three- to-six months, hitting 1.05 by March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Industrial Output Struggled in Q3, Despite a Decent August

  • EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
  • Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
  • Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, August

In one line: Headline masks struggles in energy intensive sectors. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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