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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.
In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.
In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.
In one line: Surveys suggest resilience won’t last.
In one line: Resilience in Germany’s labour market; EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin.
In one line: Unemployment is rising, but mainly due to supply-side effects.
German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.
But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.
France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.
The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.
The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.
The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.
We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.
The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.
The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.
The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.
In one line: Early evidence of the incoming slowdown?
Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.
The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.
We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
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