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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

employment

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2022 Look Closely, and the Data Point to Early Signs of Weakness in the EZ

A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.

We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.

Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, April 2022

 In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2022 EZ GDP Growth will Slow Soon, but Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.

The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.

We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 May 2022 Ignore the Softer Services PMI; the Sector is Booming

We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.

Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.

This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 May 2022 We Remain Bullish on Eurozone Labour Market Prospects

EZ GDP rose a tad quicker than initially estimated in Q1, lifting the carry-over for full-year growth in 2022.

Employment in the EZ is rising quicker than implied by GDP growth, but we still think it will slow in H2.

Women are driving the gains in EZ employment and labour force participation; that’s good news.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q1 2022

 In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 May 2022 We Now Think the ECB will Lift its Deposit Rate in July, by 25bp

Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.

Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.

Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, March 2022

In one line: The recovery in the labour market slowed at the end of Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Apr 2022 EZ Joblessness Falls; will Inflation Make us Look the Fools Again

  • EZ unemployment fell in February but a rise in the number on furlough poses risks to the outlook...
  • ...We still look for the jobless rate to fall gradually this year, to a record low of 6.5% by December.
  • More hot inflation data mark the last day of the ECB’s net asset purchases under PEPP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February

In one line: Jobless rate falls, but only because of an upward revision to January’s data. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March

In one line: Fall in unemployment rate will continue soon. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Mar 2022 Brace for the First Post-War Data in the Eurozone Economy

  • Investor sentiment points to a fall in this week's eco- nomic surveys; brace for downside surprises.
  • Near-real-time data signal little in the way of a direct hit to activity from the war in Ukraine, yet.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January; is the deficit with China now shrinking?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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