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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.
We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.
In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.
In one line: Early evidence of the incoming slowdown?
Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.
The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.
We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
EZ GDP rose a tad quicker than initially estimated in Q1, lifting the carry-over for full-year growth in 2022.
Employment in the EZ is rising quicker than implied by GDP growth, but we still think it will slow in H2.
Women are driving the gains in EZ employment and labour force participation; that’s good news.
In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.
The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.
Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.
In one line: The recovery in the labour market slowed at the end of Q1.
In one line: Robust, consistent with the surveys.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
In one line: Jobless rate falls, but only because of an upward revision to January’s data.
In one line: Fall in unemployment rate will continue soon.
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