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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

employment

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, October 2022

In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Trade & ZEW, EZ & Germany, Q3 2022/Sep/Nov

In one line: Confirmation of the downturn in Q3; investor sentiment remains depressed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German Unemployment & Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs, October 2022

In one line: Resilience in Germany’s labour market; EZ manufacturing is in a tail-spin.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Unemployment is rising, but mainly due to supply-side effects.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Deepening Downturn won't Deter Further ECB Rate Hikes this Year

The slide in the Composite PMI to an 18-month low now points to downside risks to our Q3 GDP call.

The steep decline in demand and easing hiring intentions suggest the worst is yet to come.

The fall in the EURUSD will catch the ECB’s attention, but will have little impact on core inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's all Downhill from Here for Eurozone GDP Growth

We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.

The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.

The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Climate, France, July 2022

In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2022 Look Closely, and the Data Point to Early Signs of Weakness in the EZ

A rebound in services activity is supporting EZ GDP growth; we see softness everywhere else.

We still see EZ GDP rising by 0.5% quarter-on- quarter in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.

Unemployment in the euro area is still falling, but at a slowing rate; this trend will continue in H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, April 2022

 In one line: The unemployment rate will resume its gradual fall soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2022 EZ GDP Growth will Slow Soon, but Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Real M1 growth is still falling; it now indicates that the EZ will stall in the second half of the year.

The incoming real slowdown will be mainly due to higher inflation; nominal growth will remain decent.

We see relative resilience in the labour market and investment, but bond yields will rise further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 May 2022 Ignore the Softer Services PMI; the Sector is Booming

We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.

Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.

This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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