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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

electricity

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe Faces Difficult Trade-Offs on Energy as Winter Approaches

  • The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
  • Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
  • Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Priming Markets for a Series of 50bp Rate Hikes

  • We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
  • Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
  • Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2022 Fiscal Aid in Spain and Italy is Not Enough to Boost Consumption

Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.

The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.

Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2022 Taking Stock of the Energy Situation in Europe, Again

Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.

The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.

A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2022 Brace for Further Russian Gas Flow Cuts and Higher Inflation

Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.

This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...

...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 June 2022 ECB Hikes Could Lift Mortgage Rates by 300bp Through 2023

Mortgage rates in the EZ tend to trend in line with the main ECB policy rates, so they will rise this year.

Around a fifth of mortgages incur a variable rate and so are sensitive to changes in ECB policy rates.

Households can withstand higher borrowing costs, but growth in house prices will slow significantly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2022 ECB Hawks will Use the May HICP Data to Push for 50bp in July

Advance inflation in Germany and Spain hints at an upside surprise in today’s EZ HICP data for May.

Core HICP inflation in Germany will rise above 4% over the summer, adding to the pressure on the ECB.

The EU still hasn’t agreed on a Russian oil ban, but all eyes on Brussels today for a breakthrough.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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