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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

electricity

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 May 2022 The EZ Inches Closer to an H2 Recession in our New Forecasts

Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.

But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.

German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 May 2022 The ECB will Find it Hard to Justify QE Past Q3, even if Growth Slows

Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.

Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.

The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Apr 2022 What are Governments Doing to Combat Rising Energy Prices?

The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices. 

More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least. 

Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Mar 2022 EZ Consumers are Worried About Inflation, For Good Reason

  • Consumer confidence in the core is falling sharply, reflecting mainly worries of rising inflation.
  • EZ real wages are now falling, but savings will support spending in Q2, before a sharp slowdown in H2.
  • Fiscal support and a quicker reduction in household savings are the main upside risks to our baseline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Mar 2022 Can the EU Replenish the Planned Cuts to Russian Gas Imports?

  • The EU will struggle to make up the committed cut in Russian gas imports from elsewhere this year...
  • ...As a result, supply/demand dynamics in the sector will remain tight and we see little respite for prices...
  • ...A full embargo on all Russian imports would lead to a further, and large, rise in gas prices.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

16 Mar 2022 EZ Industry is Unlikely to Gain Much Momentum This Year

  • EZ industry has moved sideways since the start of 2021, as supply constraints held back output.
  • There are signs that higher energy costs are having a dampening affect on the most exposed sectors.
  • The war in Ukraine risks exacerbating this drag, further disrupting global supply chains.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Mar 2022 The ECB to Tighten Hard in 22, Before Applying the Brakes in 23

  • We grasp the nettle on our faulty energy inflation forecasts, and try a new approach.
  • Our new model sees near-term upside risks for energy inflation, but downside risks next year.
  • We now think the ECB will take the deposit rate to zero this year, before pausing in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

9 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine will Knock Off 0.6pp from EZ Growth in 2022

  • We are revising down our euro area GDP forecast for this year, by 0.6pp to 3.2%.
  • In a mild scenario, the war between Ukraine and Russia shaves 0.3pp off our 2022 forecast...
  • ...But in a worst-case scenario, where the war lasts past this year, GDP growth would be 1.5pp lower.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Mar 2022 The Stagflationary Shock is a Reality; What Happens Next?

  • The EZ is now in stagflation; growth forecasts will come down, even as inflation projections rise.
  • EZ energy inflation could rise above 40% in the next few months, lifting the headline HICP rate to 7%.
  • Economic activity in Germany picked up in January, but growth through Q1 as a whole will be soft.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Mar 2022 Activity Gains Pace; the Labour Market Brushed-Off Omicron

  • Spain's and Italy's PMIs support our view that their growth is slowing in Q1, despite the February uptick.
  • The implosion of Russia's economy will not derail the pick-up in EZ GDP growth in Q2.
  • The labour market is on fire, but is still not stoking wage prices pressures.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Mar 2022 EZ Inflation Data will Make the ECB Uncomfortable

  • EZ inflation jumped by 0.7pp to 5.8% in February, driven by higher energy inflation, again.
  • We think the energy rate will start to fall soon, but some of this will be offset by a higher core.
  • The ECB will pause in light of the war in Ukraine, but can't avoid unwinding QE this year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Mar 2022 Swiss Economy Outperforms Again; Spanish Inflation Jumps

  • The Swiss economy was resilient in Q4; GDP ended the year 2.0% above its pre-pandemic level.
  • Growth will pick up, but inflation will remain low; the SNB will not hike rates with the ECB later this year.
  • Spanish inflation jumped to an eye-watering 7.4% in February; energy prices remain a wild card.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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