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In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.
Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.
Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.
Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.
This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...
...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.
Mortgage rates in the EZ tend to trend in line with the main ECB policy rates, so they will rise this year.
Around a fifth of mortgages incur a variable rate and so are sensitive to changes in ECB policy rates.
Households can withstand higher borrowing costs, but growth in house prices will slow significantly.
Advance inflation in Germany and Spain hints at an upside surprise in today’s EZ HICP data for May.
Core HICP inflation in Germany will rise above 4% over the summer, adding to the pressure on the ECB.
The EU still hasn’t agreed on a Russian oil ban, but all eyes on Brussels today for a breakthrough.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
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