Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
electricity
In one line: Energy inflation is easing, but the core is holding firm.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
- Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
- Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
- The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
- ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
- Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
- Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
- Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone