12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

• Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
• ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
• We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, December 2022

In one line: The holidays are lifting consumers’ spirits but consumption still likely fell in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy Fared Worse than Germany's in Q3

• The Swiss economy fared worse than its German neighbour in Q3 and will likely contract in Q4.
• Only a few EZ Banks have taken the opportunity to repay TLTROs early to dodge a loss in savings.
• 13% of the remaining loans will be repaid this week; ECB balance sheet shrinkage is starting, but slowly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor France's economy is resilient, but growth is slowing

• The French economy is resilient, but the data tell a clear story of slowing growth, all the same.
• Households in France will enjoy a real-income boost in H2, but a rise in savings will curb consumption.
• We think GDP in France rose by 0.1% q/q in Q3, which will be followed by a 0.3% fall in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

• The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
• Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
• Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone