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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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economy

5 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor If polls are right, Italy will soon get a right-wing government

If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.

This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.

Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The German Economy is Likely in Recession; When is the Recovery?

Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.

Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.

Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Apr 2022 The EZ Budget Deficit will Fall in 2022, but by Less than in 2021

The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.

We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.

France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Mar 2022 Can the EU Replenish the Planned Cuts to Russian Gas Imports?

  • The EU will struggle to make up the committed cut in Russian gas imports from elsewhere this year...
  • ...As a result, supply/demand dynamics in the sector will remain tight and we see little respite for prices...
  • ...A full embargo on all Russian imports would lead to a further, and large, rise in gas prices.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

25 Feb 2022 What Does a War in Ukraine Mean for EZ Energy Prices, and the ECB?

  • A new and more uncertain reality is emerging in Europe; defence spending will accelerate.
  • The ECB’s initial response to a war in Ukraine will be to pause, but the inflation challenge isn’t going away.
  • War in Ukraine risks another surge in oil and gas prices, boosting energy inflation.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Feb 2022 The Conflict in Ukraine Will Keep EZ Energy Inflation Elevated

  • The situation in Ukraine is unpredictable, but one thing is certain, energy inflation will remain hot.
  • Sanctions to curb the flow of energy from Russia to the EZ are the main economic threat.
  • The Bundesbank believes Germany has entered a technical recession; the survey data beg to differ.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Feb 2022 Growth is Slowing, Temporarily, but Employment is Looking Strong

  • Slowdowns in Germany and Austria weighed on the Eurozone economy in the fourth quarter…
  • …But employment rose strongly, consistent with robust surveys and monthly claims data.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit widened in December, thanks to soaring imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Feb 2022 Will Inflation Put a Squeeze on EZ Consumption and GDP Growth?

  • The slowdown in real M1 growth warns of a composite PMI in the low 50s through Q2.
  • Inflation will weigh on real wage growth in H1, but households have savings to smooth consumption.
  • The ECB would think twice about tightening if Q2 growth disappoints, but no respite in the near term.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

11 Feb 2022 The Tourism Sector will Recover Further this Year, But Not Fully

  • The return of the virus and associated restrictions didn’t hamper EZ tourism much last quarter.
  • The start of 2022 isn’t looking good and we doubt Q2 & Q3 will bring tourism back to 2019 levels.
  • As a result, the most tourism-reliant EZ economies, such as Spain, will continue to lag behind.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Feb 2022 Soaring Imports from China are Depressing EZ Net Trade in Goods

  • A sustained acceleration in imports from China is driving the deterioration in the EZ trade surplus.
  • Germany's trade deficit with China blew out in 2021; will 2022 bring stabilisation?
  • Watch out for two important statistical distortions in the quarterly EZ trade data.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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