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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ecb policy

2 June 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Disinflation is Accelerating; the ECB will be Done Next Month

  • Core inflation in the EZ is now being pulled lower by disinflation in goods; services will follow later.
  • The EZ inflation data support our call that the ECB will end its hiking cycle in July.
  • Punchy wage growth won’t keep the ECB hiking beyond July, but it is an upside risk for rates in 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, April 2023

In one line: A sticky core leaves room for two more 25bp hikes over the summer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, May 2023

In one line: Down a nudge, but the ECB likely isn’t quite done yet. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2023

In one line: CS problem is solved as far as the SNB is concerned; fight against inflation continues.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Southern Europe Prevails on EU Energy Policy, Again

  • The EU’s new gas price cap is an insurance policy against further price surges; it will not lower prices...
  • ...As a result, its impact on inflation will be nil in the absence of a renewed jump in wholesale costs.
  • EZ current account data show that the EZ terms of trade shock from the war in Ukraine is easing, a bit.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Tighter-for-Longer ECB Policy Means Slower EZ GDP Growth

  • Tighter-for-longer ECB policy leads us to downgrade our GDP estimates, through 2024.
  • We now look for GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, both are 0.3pp lower than previously.
  • Economic growth should pick up in 2025, as the ECB will now also likely cut rates further in 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation will Provide Cover for the ECB to Lift Rates to 3.5%

  • Core inflation data will allow the ECB to raise rates to 3.5% by June, but the tune will change in H2-23.
  • PMI data confirm the greenshoots seen in November, but still point to GDP falling sharply in Q4.
  • EZ energy imports plunged in October, but we can’t assume this is the start of a more sustained fall.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December

In one line: ECB hawks to markets; “we’re the captain now”.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence