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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

deficit

17 May 2022 What is Happening to the EU Ban on Russian Oil Imports

EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.

Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...

...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Apr 2022 The EZ Budget Deficit will Fall in 2022, but by Less than in 2021

The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.

We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.

France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial production & Trade, Eurozone, February

In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Apr 2022 A Russian Energy Embargo Likely Would Send EURUSD to Parity

The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.

A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.

German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Apr 2022 France is Set for Another Face-Off Between Macron and Le Pen

The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.

Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.

Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Mar 2022 What Does the War Mean for EZ Trade With Russia?

  • Russia accounts for around 3% of total EZ exports, and 6% of imports, the latter due mainly to energy.
  • EZ manufacturing exports to Russia are likely now falling; we look for a 40% slide through Q2.
  • European imports of energy from Russia will increase further in Q2, sanctions permitting.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Mar 2022 EZ Construction Rebounds; is the Services Trade Revival Stalling?

  • Construction in the EZ started the year on a strong footing, finally rising back to pre-pandemic levels...
  • ...But supply constraints will hold back supply in the sector for the remainder of this year.
  • EZ portfolio outflows weakened at the start of the year, and will soften further in coming months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Mar 2022 Brace for the First Post-War Data in the Eurozone Economy

  • Investor sentiment points to a fall in this week's eco- nomic surveys; brace for downside surprises.
  • Near-real-time data signal little in the way of a direct hit to activity from the war in Ukraine, yet.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January; is the deficit with China now shrinking?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Mar 2022 Italian Bonds are Holding On; will the End of QE be Too Much?

  • Italian government bond yields likely will rise further in the run-up to the end of QE...
  • ...But they will reverse some of their increase later in the year, even as the ECB tightening cycle begins.
  • EZ headline inflation could hit 7% in the second quarter, with core inflation rising to just over 3%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, January 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods narrowed on the eve of new sanctions against Russia. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Feb 2022 EZ Manufacturing Softened in Q4, but is Primed for a Jump in Q1

  • EZ industrial production fell again in Q4, but a rebound is underway; Q1 should be solid overall.
  • Output in the EZ auto sector snapped back in Q4; we're hoping for more of the same in Q1.
  • A surge in EZ demand for Chinese manufacturing goods is the main driver of the trade deficit in goods.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Feb 2022 Growth is Slowing, Temporarily, but Employment is Looking Strong

  • Slowdowns in Germany and Austria weighed on the Eurozone economy in the fourth quarter…
  • …But employment rose strongly, consistent with robust surveys and monthly claims data.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit widened in December, thanks to soaring imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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