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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

deficit

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Nov 2021 Italian Reforms are Coming; will they make a Difference to Growth?

  • Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
  • ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
  • We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

20 Oct 2021 Construction in the EZ has St alled, but Should Rebound Slightly in Q4

  • EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
  • Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
  • A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

  • The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
  • …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
  • We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

  • German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
  • The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
  • The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

  • The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
  • Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
  • We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

  • EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
  • EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
  • Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

  • The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
  • The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2021 Is the Reflation Trade in Bonds Dead and Buried?

EZ bond yields have been dragged lower as investors have abandoned the reflation trade.
Idiosyncratic factors will weigh on bund yields in H2, but we still see room for a rise to -0.3-to-0.4% in Q4.
Energy imports, and goods demand from Eastern Europe, are weighing on Germany's trade surplus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Aug 2021 Industry in the Core is Not Going Anywhere

German factory orders surged in June, more than reversing May's plunge ...
... But turnover data point to a weak end to Q2 for industry; we look for a 0.5% monthly fall in June.
French industry continued to tread water; even though car output rose for the first time this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 We Remain Optimistic about the Reopening Upturn in Ser vices

The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2021 All Set for Record-Busting Q3 GDP Growth in the EZ Economy

We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2021 The Swiss Economy Entered Q3 on the Front Foot

Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone.
The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells off at the SNB...
... but a stronger franc all but cements the need for higher FX intervention.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts.

We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5% previously.

Ignore the July dip in euro area core inflation; it will leap to 1.5% in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 The Economic Upturn in the EZ Continued at the Start of Q3

The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3.

The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3 forecast.

The EZ budget deficit remained wide in Q1, but it will come down as the economy recovers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 July 2021 Sticking our Neck out With a Call on EZ Net Trade in 2021 and 2022

This is not, on the face of it, the best time to take a step back and look at the prospects for net exports in the Eurozone in a post-Covid world.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed
to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to 0.9%, from 1.0% in May, also in line with the first estimate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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