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EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.
We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.
France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.
They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.
The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.
The stars are aligned for further EURUSD weakness in the second quarter; 1.05 is in sight.
A European embargo on Russian gas likely would push EURUSD to parity; this risk is rising.
German GDP growth was picking up strongly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.
Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.
Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.
In one line: The deficit in goods narrowed on the eve of new sanctions against Russia.
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