Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

deficit

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

  • Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
  • ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
  • We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Downturn Confirmed; The EZ is Still on Course for a Recession

  • The second release of EZ Q3 GDP confirmed the downturn and a slowdown in productivity growth.
  • The nominal goods trade deficit narrowed in September; it will likely continue to do so in Q4.
  • Still, we think that net trade will contribute to a fall in GDP this quarter and next.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Governments are Low-balling their 2023 Budget Forecasts

  • The EZ budget deficit fell in Q2; we think it will widen to year-end, but are revising down our 2022 forecast.
  • Fiscal plans for 2023, and slower nominal growth, point to a deficit of 3.5% next year, as in 2022.
  • Interest costs are rising, as government bond yields creep higher, but the debt ratio will still fall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence