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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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27 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Lending Standards for Firms Are Tighter than at Peak of Covid Crisis

  • The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in September, pointing to falling output.
  • Banks are tightening standards and demand for credit is waning; we expect lending growth to slow.
  • Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni makes clear she is not Truss 2.0; markets welcome delay of some stimulus.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Surge in Gas Prices Piles More Pressure on the ECB

Soft money data rounded up a week of gloomy leading indicators for EZ GDP last week.
ISTAT data lend support to our view that Italy, along with Germany, is leading the EZ downturn in H2.
The sour data spooked some ECB members, but the ECB is not about to turn dovish.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Windfall Taxes are a Risk to the Profit Outlook of EZ Banks

Higher inflation for longer will lead to higher interest rates, which will support banks’ interest margins.

This implies higher profits, which makes bank equities attractive right now.

But risks to the profit outlook remain in the form of windfall taxes and falling demand for loans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2022 The Devil is in the Detail in the Detailed Q1 EZ GDP Data

The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.

We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.

The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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