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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.
In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.
EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.
All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.
We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
In one line: Still soaring, but a cut in fuel duties should be a drag in Q2.
The big four EZ governments already have spent 1-to-1.5% of GDP to combat high energy prices.
More will be needed; we think another 1% of GDP will be committed through Q2, at least.
Industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy advanced in February; good news for Q1 GDP.
In one line: Spending, ex-services, fell in Q1; inflation is still running hot.
In one line: Still rising, and it will go higher still.
In one line: Core inflation is racing higher.
In one line: Core inflation rebounded, and likely will climb further.
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