In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Support for an ECB pivot to 50bp in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
- ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
- The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Much welcome relief from the French CPI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
- Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
- Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German inflation jumped above 10% in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
- We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
- Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy inflation is falling, but food and core inflation are still climbing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The headline is now falling, but the core will soon rise above 5%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
- Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
- Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
- The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
- EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
- Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
