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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cpi

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A record high, but it still doesn’t justify rate expectations. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France, October & November

In one line: Spending starts Q4 on a weak foot; energy inflation drives the headline higher in November.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

17 Nov 2021 We're Holding on to our Outlook for Q4; by the Skin of our Teeth

  • EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
  • We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
  • Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

PM Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, October 2021

In one line: Still going up, but the upturn in the core is levelling off. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q3 GDP & Inflation, Eurozone

In one line: EZ GDP is within touching distance of its pre-virus level; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2021

In one line: Boosted by higher energy inflation; the core likely rose fractionally. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German State CPI, October 2021

In one line: German inflation rose more than expected in October. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2021 EZ Inflation is Still Red Hot, but a Cyclical Peak is Close

  • Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
  • Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
  • …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

  • German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
  • Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
  • Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

  • Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
  • ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
  • ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

  • EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
  • Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
  • The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

  • Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
  • Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
  • The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.

Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.

Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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