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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cpi

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct

In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, November 2022

In one line: German inflation likely undershot the consensus in November, slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's Getting Easier to Find Evidence of a Peak in EZ Core Inflation

  • Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
  • ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
  • The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Likely Reached 10% in September, with 5% on the Core

  • German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
  • Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
  • Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, September

In one line: German inflation jumped above 10% in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Energy inflation is falling, but food and core inflation are still climbing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, August 2022

In one line: The headline is now falling, but the core will soon rise above 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, August 2022

In one line: Core inflation will rise above 4% in September and October.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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