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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core rate

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

  • German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
  • Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
  • Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

  • We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
  • Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
  • Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Oct 2021 Inflation in Switzerland is Likely as High as it Gets

  • Inflation in Switzerland likely has peaked, keeping it lower than the headline HICP in the EZ...
  • ...Currency effects will soon be a drag on headline inflation, to the SNB's dismay...
  • ...Meanwhile, rising natural gas prices are no worry for the Swiss, and wage pressures are limited.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Oct 2021 On the Meaning of "Transitory" Inflation in the Eurozone

  • Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
  • Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
  • Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

  • EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
  • Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
  • The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

  • The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
  • Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
  • We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

  • Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. 

    Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this. 

    Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2021 How Quickly will Germany and Italy Slow in Q4?

  • The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
  • ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 Sept 2021 GDP Growth in the EZ is Now Slowing, but How Quickly

  • The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
  • We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
  • No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2021 A New Chancellor in Germany, but Same-Old Murky Coalition Politics

  • The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote.
  • The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition isn't clear.
  • All eyes on the combined tally of the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke; +50% and bunds will suffer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

  • Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
  • Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
  • The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions.

Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in Q4? That could be a forecast error.

Construction in the euro area seems to be stagnat- ing; supply-side constraints are to blame, in part.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

  • A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the slump in production.
  • The EV transition is underway in Europe, but lack of timely infrastructure investment is a challenge.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Sept 2021 EZ Wages are Back to Pre-Virus Levels, and More Gains to Come

  • Growth in EZ hourly labour costs plunged in Q2, but other, more timely, data point to robust wage gains.
  • Ms. Lagarde's comments last week suggest that we should watch negotiated wages closely in H2.
  • We see few signs of accelerating wage growth in 2021 collective bargaining agreements, yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

  • The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ...
  • ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact, keeping energy inflation sticky.
  • We doubt this will lead the ECB to taper more quickly, particularly if some restrictions return in winter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2021 The Eurozone's Industrial Sector Remains in the Doldrums, for now

  • EZ manufacturing output is still hampered by supply-side woes, but it's not all bad news.
  • Unemployment in the EZ fell further at the start of Q3; we think the good news will keep coming.
  • SPD's lead in the German polls is startling, but not yet a game-changer for the final outcome.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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