Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core rate

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, EZ, October 2022

In one line: A new record low; labour market resilience will fade soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's A Close Call, But We Still Look for an ECB Pivot This Month

The fall in EZ inflation supports our view of an ECB pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes from this month.

But we now think a sticky core inflation rate will keep the Bank on its toes...

...We are raising our call for February’s hike to 50bp, up from 25bp previously.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct

In one line: A rise in food inflation prevents a fall in the headline in November; refinery closures hit spending in October. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The November EZ CPI will Support the Case for 50bp in December

 Early data point to a downside surprise in today’s advance EZ inflation report for November...

...This likely would seal the deal on a 50bp rate hike next month, but it will be a close call either way.

Switzerland’s economy grew slightly in Q3, but we look for falling GDP in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Current Account Deficit will Continue to Narrow, For Now

  • Services exports have held back the EZ services balance since June, despite the summer tourist season.
  • Risk aversion means EZ investors again dumped foreign assets in September; this will continue.
  • The rise in prices of durable goods items, which is partly driving core inflation higher, is broad-based.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation Likely is now Falling, but the Downshift will be Slow

  • EZ core goods inflation will rise a bit further in the near term, but services inflation should now ease.
  • The reversal in margin pressure points to a sustained fall in EZ core inflation, but it will take a long time.
  • We think core inflation will stay above 3% through the first half of 2023, maintaining pressure on the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October

In one line: An early hint of slower rate rises; the ECB is incentivising banks to repay TLTRO III funds. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It Looks Like a Peak in Inflation, but a 75bp Hike Next Week is a Lock

  • Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
  • The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
  • Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation & Construction, EZ, Sep/Aug

In one line:  Small downward revision not enough to convince the ECB to hike by less than 75bp next week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's Getting Easier to Find Evidence of a Peak in EZ Core Inflation

  • Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
  • ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
  • The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence