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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core inflation

18 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Core Inflation Likely is now Falling, but the Downshift will be Slow

  • EZ core goods inflation will rise a bit further in the near term, but services inflation should now ease.
  • The reversal in margin pressure points to a sustained fall in EZ core inflation, but it will take a long time.
  • We think core inflation will stay above 3% through the first half of 2023, maintaining pressure on the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, October

In one line: November data hold the key to the size of the next ECB rate hike. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Germany's Yield Curve is Inverted; How Will it Un-Invert?

  • Germany’s yield curve is now inverted, driven mainly by a repricing in short-term interest rates.
  • We think the curve will stay inverted until Q1-23, after which it will re-steepen via higher 10-year yields.
  • Core inflation in Germany likely has peaked, but it will stay at 4-to-5% through H1-23, at least.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, October 2022

In one line: Energy remains the key driver, but the core looks “uncomfortably high” too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor Swiss Inflation is Falling, Fast; the EZ Labour Market is Still Resilient

  • Swiss inflation fell again in October, and all signs point to it sliding below the SNB’s estimates in Q4.
  • We look for the SNB to hike just once more, taking the key policy rate to only 1.0%.
  • The EZ labour market took the slowdown in Q3 on the chin, but surveys suggest resilience won’t last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The October Inflation Data are a Halloween Nightmare for the ECB

  • EZ inflation zoomed higher in October, and we now fear it will stay at 10% or higher in Q4.
  • Core inflation will remain close to 5% in Q4, and above 4% through the first quarter.
  • EZ GDP growth defied our expectations of a fall in Q3, but the slowdown is real, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Rose in Q3, just, but We Expect it to Fall in Q4

  • National Q3 GDP data, out on Friday, mean we have to revise up our forecast for the EZ release today.
  • We now look for an increase in GDP in Q3, albeit of just 0.1% q/q; GDP is still on course to fall in Q4.
  • National inflation data suggest the peak in the EZ headline isn’t in yet; it rose this month, to 10.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Lending Standards for Firms Are Tighter than at Peak of Covid Crisis

  • The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in September, pointing to falling output.
  • Banks are tightening standards and demand for credit is waning; we expect lending growth to slow.
  • Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni makes clear she is not Truss 2.0; markets welcome delay of some stimulus.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ Downturn is Intensifying, but Inflation Pressures Still Intense

  • PMI data support our view that EZ GDP is likely to fall more quickly in Q4 than in Q3.
  • High energy prices and rising borrowing costs are weighing on output and weakening demand.
  • Activity in Germany took another leg down at the start of Q4, but it merely stalled in France.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It Looks Like a Peak in Inflation, but a 75bp Hike Next Week is a Lock

  • Record-high EZ inflation all but guarantees a 75bp rate hike from the ECB next week.
  • The fall in wholesale EZ gas prices is great news, but we doubt it will be sustained through winter.
  • Underlying inflation pressures in the EZ remain intense, but we look for softer data in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation & Construction, EZ, Sep/Aug

In one line:  Small downward revision not enough to convince the ECB to hike by less than 75bp next week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor Unanchored Inflation Expectations are Forcing the ECB's Hand

  • Consumers expect inflation to remain well above target in three years’ time.
  • Investors look for lower, but still above-target inflation, even as far out as 2027.
  • The ECB must do more to convince stakeholders that inflation will come down to target soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's Getting Easier to Find Evidence of a Peak in EZ Core Inflation

  • Detailed CPI data in Germany, France and Spain add to the evidence that EZ core inflation is peaking...
  • ...But the data also suggest that core inflation will remain too high for the ECB’s comfort through Q4.
  • The EZ trade deficit widened further in August; net exports in goods likely hit growth in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Industrial Output Struggled in Q3, Despite a Decent August

  • EZ industrial production rose strongly in August, but we still think output fell over Q3 as a whole.
  • Current levels of oil and gas prices mean that Euro- zone energy inflation will soon fall sharply.
  • Spreads between yields in Italy and Germany are nearing levels that the ECB will struggle to ignore.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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