Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Industrial production set for a solid Q4; will it be enough to save the GDP print?
- Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
- …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
- German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.
- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
In one line: A record high, but it still doesn’t justify rate expectations.
In one line: Spending starts Q4 on a weak foot; energy inflation drives the headline higher in November.
In one line: Expect another hot reading in December.
- B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
- The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
- French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.
- The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
- ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
- GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.
- Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
- ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
- The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
- The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
- Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.
- Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
- …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
- Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.
In one line: A few more high numbers are on the way, before the drop in Q1.
- EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
- We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
- Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.
In one line: Energy inflation is still rocketing; the core is held up by robust services inflation.
- EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
- ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
- We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.
- The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
- In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
- The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.
- EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
- The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
- ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.
- Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
- An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
- We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.