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In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.
In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
In one line: GDP growth slows a touch; rising core inflation more than offsets the fall in the energy rate.
In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
In one line: Small downward revision doesn’t change the picture of hot inflation.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.
We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.
Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.
They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.
The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.
In one line: Still soaring, but a cut in fuel duties should be a drag in Q2.
In one line: Brutal.
In one line: Merciless.
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