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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, April 2022

 In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April 2022

 In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 May 2022 The ECB will Find it Hard to Justify QE Past Q3, even if Growth Slows

Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.

Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.

The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q1 2022 & Advance Inflation, EZ, April

In one line: GDP growth slows a touch; rising core inflation more than offsets the fall in the energy rate.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, April & GDP, Spain, Q1 2022

In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2022

In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final inflation, Eurozone, March 2022

In one line: Small downward revision doesn’t change the picture of hot inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Apr 2022 The ECB will Repeat the March Message Today; QE will End in Q3

The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.

We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.

Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Still soaring, but a cut in fuel duties should be a drag in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Apr 2022 EZ Inflation is Taking no Prisoners; Don't Expect Relief in Q2

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was still soaring at the end of Q1, and it could well go higher still.
  • Energy inflation is a wildcard; we think it will remain above 40% y/y through April and May.
  • The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts again; QE will end in June, with a rate hike in September

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Mar 2022 Italian Bonds are Holding On; will the End of QE be Too Much?

  • Italian government bond yields likely will rise further in the run-up to the end of QE...
  • ...But they will reverse some of their increase later in the year, even as the ECB tightening cycle begins.
  • EZ headline inflation could hit 7% in the second quarter, with core inflation rising to just over 3%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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