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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

consumption

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU/EZ, December 2021

In one line: No recovery, but car sales likely rebounded slightly in Q4. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

12 Jan 2022 Spain is On Track for 1.5% q/q Growth in Q4, a Positive Outlier

  • Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
  • We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
  • Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Jan 2022 Solid Q4 Retail Sales Growth Didn't Offset Weakness in Services

  • Retail sales data had a decent November, but online sales can't offset falling services spending.
  • Germany is on track to meet our expectations for Q4 growth, but we're reducing our forecasts in France.
  • EZ inflation has peaked; a strong rebound in the core will be a headache for the ECB in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment & Retail sales, Eurozone, December & November

In one line: ESI will decline again in January, decent retail sales won’t have prevented a slowdown in consumption growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers Spending & Industrial Production, France, November 2021

In one line: Goods spending rebounds but industrial production still in the doldrums.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Jan 2022 The Restrictions-Exposed Services Sector is now Driving a Slowdown

  • The December PMIs indicate that EZ manufacturing production is now outpacing services output.
  • German GDP growth underperformed in Q4, according to the PMIs; Spain did relatively well.
  • French consumer sentiment remained resilient in Q4, but we look for a setback in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, France, December 2021

In one line: Solid, but it doesn’t fully reflect the recent deterioration in the virus numbers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Jan 2022 Early Evidence of EZ Resilience in the Face of Omicron, in Q4

  • Advance November retail sales data point to relative strength in EZ consumption midway through Q4.
  • Germany's labour market recovery continued in Q4, but surveys warn of a setback in Q1.
  • Headline inflation in France remained high in December, but energy inflation is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Q3 GDP, Spain

In one line: Revised up as expected, brace for much slower growth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Dec 2021 End in Sight for Surge in Energy Inflation, but Uncertainty Persists

  • Gas prices have further to rise in the short term boosting energy inflation into Q1.
  • But easing demand and base effects will then bring gas inflation hurtling down.
  • Political tensions with Russia, and Germany's plans to wind down nuclear energy, present upside risks.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Q3 GDP, EZ & ZEW, Germany, December

In one line: Q3’s performance was driven by consumption; ZEW points to a weak end to the year for Germany. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, October 2021

In one line: Will online sales offset the impact from falling footfall?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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