Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
- Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
- …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.
- The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
- If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
- We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.
- A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
- …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
- Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.
- In one line: Still-consistent with solid growth in spending.
- Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
- Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
- …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.
- EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive.
- Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data suggest otherwise.
- The pace of policy tightening implied by global rate expectations will soon be an issue for EZ equities.
- EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
- The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
- Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
- German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
- Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
- Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?
- German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
- The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
- The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
- Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
- Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.
- EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
- Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
- The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.
Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1.
Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this.
Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys.
- In one line: A solid end to Q3.
- In one line: Better than the business surveys.
- The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
- ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
- ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.
- In one line: More evidence consumption growth accelerated in Q3.
- Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
- Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
- The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.