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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

consumer goods

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

  • We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
  • Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
  • …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Oct 2021 If the Supply Side Can't Move, Demand will Have to Fall

  • The composite PMIs are still consistent with robust GDP growth, but risks are stacked to the downside.
  • If the PMIs are right, demand is now falling to match fixed supply; that means slower GDP growth.
  • We look for another soft IFO today, but next week's consumer sentiment data should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Oct 2021 How will the EZ Respond to Rising Virus Cases in Q4?

  • A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
  • …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
  • Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2021 EZ Inflation is Still Red Hot, but a Cyclical Peak is Close

  • Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
  • Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
  • …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Oct 2021 EZ Equity Earnings are Rising, but Can the Upturn Continue?

  • EZ equity earnings have recovered handsomely this year, leaving valuations more attractive.
  • Markets still expect strong earnings growth in the next 12 months; the macro data suggest otherwise.
  • The pace of policy tightening implied by global rate expectations will soon be an issue for EZ equities.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2021 The EZ Trade Deficits With Asia and China are Widening, Quickly

  • EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
  • The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
  • Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

  • Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
  • ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
  • Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

  • German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
  • Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
  • Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

  • German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
  • The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
  • The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Oct 2021 On the Meaning of "Transitory" Inflation in the Eurozone

  • Inflation in the Eurozone rose further in September, but we are cautiously confident that this is the peak.
  • Core inflation will remain high in Q4, then fall in Q1, but then rebound quickly; this could unsettle bonds.
  • Ignore the negative messages from the monthly consumption data; spending jumped in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

  • EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
  • Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
  • The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

  • Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. 

    Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this. 

    Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2021 How Quickly will Germany and Italy Slow in Q4?

  • The IFO dipped again in September; it still points to solid growth, but Q4 risks are tilted to the downside.
  • ISTAT's ESI eased again in September, but points to decent GDP growth in Italy in Q3...
  • ...Growth in Italy will slow in Q4, but higher gas prices and/or an Evergrande default won't be to blame.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

  • Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB.
  • Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and through the summer.
  • The ECB will stay dovish, but it will lift its inflation forecasts further; this will unsettle markets.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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