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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
In one line: Add low water levels in European rivers to the long list of factors that will weigh on industrial output in H2.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.
This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.
Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.
Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.
Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.
Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
In one line: Money supply data support our call that the EZ is heading into a recession; the Italian economy started Q3 on the back foot.
In one line: Grim, but one-off factors should support income and spending in Q3.
In one line: Households fear running out of energy this winter.
Russian gas will soon flow to Europe again, but at a severely reduced rate; a full shutdown remains likely.
The IMF estimates that Europe will be short some 50bcm gas if Russian supplies are halted, at best.
Only demand compression, via higher prices and or rationing, solves this problem; it will sting.
In one line: A new record low and further falls are likely as incomes continue to be squeezed.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
Wages are rising across the Eurozone’s largest economies, but nowhere near as quickly as inflation.
The squeeze on incomes will ease over the coming months as inflation falls, but it will remain severe.
A wage-price spiral is a risk for markets and the ECB next year, even with ’normal’ real wage growth.
Germany is now likely in recession, but net trade in services is a wild card for the Q2 GDP print.
By contrast, we are revising up our Spain Q2 GDP forecast, again; we now look for a 1.0% q/q rise.
Inflation was weighing on retail sales mid-way through Q2, but spending probably still rose.
In one line: GDP growth will still be decent in Q2, but a recession is coming in H2.
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is still falling, and we see little relief in the near term.
Household sentiment is consistent with our forecast for falling consumers’ spending in H2...
...But the slowdown won’t feel anywhere near as bad as in 08 and 11/12, when activity was crushed.
In one line: Depressed, and no relief in sight.
Bond markets are starting to take a more nuanced view of the data; are inflation fears fading?
The fall in the IFO BCI in June suggests a German recession is coming, consistent with our baseline.
Italy’s IESI held up in June, but consumers are now feeling the pinch from soaring inflation.
In one line: IFO remains recessionary; rise in IESI hides tanking consumer confidence.
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