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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

construction

EZ Datanote: Construction, EZ, September 2022

In one line: Construction will be a drag on GDP growth in Q4 too. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor German Industrial Production Surprised to the Upside in August

  • German industrial production likely surprised to the upside in August, helped by a leap in auto output.
  • EZ retail sales likely fell by around 1% in Q3, pointing to another fall in consumers' spending on goods.
  • The downturn in EZ construction continued in Sep- tember, due to accelerating weakness in Germany.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The End of Russian Gas Flows is Pushing the EZ into Recession

  • The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
  • A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
  • EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO BCI, Germany, August

In one line: Not as bad as feared, but still not good news. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Q2 is the Best it's Going to Get for Germany this Year

German GDP grew by 0.1% in Q2, finally returning to its pre-virus, Q4 2019, level.

But the tiny expansion is now old news; survey data imply GDP in the EZ’s largest economy is now falling.

France’s economy will avoid a recession, we think, but risks here are also skewed to the downside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation & Construction, Eurozone, July/June 2002

In one line: All set for 50bp in September; construction output is weakening.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2022 EZ Monitor Falling EZ Inflation Expectations will be a Relief for the ECB

Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.

After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.

The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Climate, France, July 2022

In one line: Overall robust, but headline confidence is now falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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