Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

construction

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, January 2022

In one line: Industrial production should rebound soon; services are softening. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A decent Q4 for construction, despite downward revisions.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Dec 2021 EZ Inflation Will be Close to 3% in 2022, and the Core will Hit 2%

  • We are raising our headline inflation forecasts for next year, but we're still well behind the ECB.
  • Core inflation will hover around 2% for much of next year, causing a headache for the central bank.
  • More poor survey data reassert our view that Q4 and Q1 won’t be pretty for the EZ’s largest economy.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

7 Dec 2021 Factory Orders in Germany are Falling, but Output is Rebounding

  • Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
  • …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

2 Dec 2021 House prices in the EZ are Rocketing; Does it Matter?

  • Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
  • ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
  • ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Nov 2021 EZ Inflation will Cool in Q1, but Keep a Close Eye on Services

  • Inflation in the Eurozone is still rising, but it will cool next year as core goods and energy inflation ease…
  • …But rising services inflation will keep the core rate uncomfortably high for the ECB in H1 22.
  • Construction output in the EZ rebounded at the end of Q3; we look for further gains through Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, September 2021

In one line: A rebound, at last; all set for a solid Q4.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Nov 2021 Q3 GDP in Spain will be Revised Higher, but only Slightly

  • Spain's GDP breakdown suggests that consumers' spending fell in Q3; it almost surely didn't.
  • An upward revision to consumption will offset down-ward revisions to net trade and manufacturing.
  • We think revisions will show that GDP rose by 2.5% in Q3, 0.5pp quicker than first estimated.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

27 Oct 2021 What Happened in the Eurozone Economy in Q3?

  • French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
  • Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
  • Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, October 2021

In one line: Will German growth forecasts have to fall further?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Oct 2021 How will the EZ Respond to Rising Virus Cases in Q4?

  • A four-week Covid lockdown in Latvia is a warning shot across the bow for the EZ…
  • …But we're sticking to our view that hospitalisations will remain contained, even as cases rise.
  • Early survey data for October hint at robust economic activity at the start of Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Oct 2021 Construction in the EZ has St alled, but Should Rebound Slightly in Q4

  • EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
  • Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
  • A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence