Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
- Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
- An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.
- Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
- ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
- We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.
- EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
- Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
- A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.
- Germany will get a Traffic Light or a new Grand Coalition, but we don't dare bet on either outcome.
- Slower growth in EZ real M1 points to a further dip in the composite PMI to about 55 in Q4.
- Bank lending to non-financial firms is now rising again, slightly; the trend has slowed.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote.
- The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition isn't clear.
- All eyes on the combined tally of the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke; +50% and bunds will suffer.
- EZ manufacturing output is still hampered by supply-side woes, but it's not all bad news.
- Unemployment in the EZ fell further at the start of Q3; we think the good news will keep coming.
- SPD's lead in the German polls is startling, but not yet a game-changer for the final outcome.